BEIJING: Recent history suggests that emerging market countries will still outperform the rest of the world. From 2009 to 2011, the economies of the BRIC nations grew at rates that were 2 to 3 percentage points higher than most other nations, including Europe and the US.
BRIC boosters like O’Neill point out that even if China’s growth slows it will still far outpace the average 2.8 per cent growth recorded last year by the G-20 nations. The most recent World Bank estimate is that China’s gross domestic product for 2012 will be 8.2 per cent, down from 9.2 per cent last year and 10.4 per cent in 2010.
Jean-Charles Sambor, director of fixed income at $1.7 billion Everest Capital, a Miami hedge fund that focuses on emerging markets, said what is happening in China and the other BRIC nations is that economic growth is returning to a more sustainable level.
He said Chinese export growth for the year is around 12.7 per cent after hitting 20 per cent in 2010. Some of that is the result of economic woes elsewhere.
“The rebalancing towards less export-driven to domestic consumption ... is happening in most BRIC countries and most emerging markets,” said Sambor. “The story remains very strong.”
As China slips, the second-half performance for many emerging market mutual funds might soon follow.
In recent months, investors have been pulling hundreds of millions of dollars out of stock funds that invest mainly in companies associated with the big four emerging market nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
But it’s China that is causing most of the worry for fund investors, amid signs that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing more sharply than expected.
Even emerging market bull Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, who famously coined the BRIC acronym, said he’s been a bit surprised by the slowdown in China. But that said, O’Neill remains convinced China’s economy will be more than enough to make-up for any weakness in the other BRIC nations.
“It is making the trajectory that I predicted difficult to stick with,” O’Neill said about the slowdown. But he added, “I find it hilarious that people question the thesis on the basis of two quarters.”
The second-quarter was not kind to so-called BRIC-focused stock funds, with investors redeeming $787 million during the period, according to fund tracking firm EPFR. Chinese-focused funds were hit particularly hard, with investor redemptions totalling 88 per cent of the $1.6 billion in new money those funds took in during the first quarter.
The rush of money out of Chinese funds come as institutional investors are dialing back growth estimates. In a recent report, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates attributed “about half” of the slowdown in global growth “to the slowdown in China.”
One sign of the Chinese slowdown can be seen in China’s purchasing managers index which dropped to 50.2 in June after hitting a year-long high of 53.3 in May.
The growing concern about China and slower growth in the other BRIC nations is also starting to show up in the performance of some US emerging markets funds and hedge funds focused on Asia.
Mutual fund industry tracking firm Morningstar says US emerging market stock funds were up 4.61 per cent as of June 30, compared to a 5.51 per cent gain for non-emerging market stock funds.
China-focused US mutual funds are up 2.9 per cent, lagging behind the 4.15 per cent gain recorded by diversified emerging market stock funds, according to Morningstar.
The benchmark S&P 500 index, meanwhile, is up about 7 per cent this year.
Some Asia-focused hedge funds that go long and short stocks are posting mediocre numbers. HSBC Private Bank reports the Chilton China Opportunities Fund was up a little under 1 per cent as of June 22, while the Pinpoint China Class A Fund was up about 1.3 per cent over the same period.
As a whole, however, emerging market stock funds are performing far better than last year, when the group posted a 20 per cent decline. But after a fast 13.1 per cent gain in the first quarter of 2012, emerging market funds as a group gave back more than half of those gains in the second-quarter.