UK retail sales decline for fifth straight month in September

British retail sales fell for a fifth straight month in September, the Confederation of British Industry said, and credit card lending data also pointed to a possible softening in consumer demand ahead of Brexit.

Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter and economists forecast it will only achieve modest growth during the three months to September, as exporters face pressure from the trade conflict between the United States and China.

So far consumer demand has stayed solid according to official data, contrasting with business investment which has ground to a halt ahead of the risk of a disruptive no-deal departure from the European Union on Oct. 31.

The CBI said the headline sales number of its monthly distributive trades survey rose to -16 in September from a 10-year low of -49 in August, a somewhat bigger rebound than economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.

The gauge of orders placed with suppliers rose to -9 from -59, but stores still judged that sales were poor for the time of year, with this measure dropping to -11 from -6.

“Add to this the pressures of sterling depreciation and the need to plan for potential tariffs and supply issues in the event of a no-deal Brexit and you get a gloomy picture for the sector,” CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said.

In recent months, the CBI data has been more downbeat than official figures and data from the British Retail Consortium.

August data from the Office for National Statistics - which includes a wider range of retailers than the CBI survey - showed that sales volumes were up 2.7% on a year earlier.

“The CBI’s survey repeatedly has pointed to a retail apocalypse this year that has not occurred,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’s Samuel Tombs said.

The weak survey data probably reflected high-street stores’ difficulty adapting to online competition, he added.

Nonetheless, there have been some recent signs that consumers’ mood may be darkening. A monthly survey by IHS Markit showed on Monday that households were the most downbeat about the outlook for their finances in nearly six years - though a strong job market boosted overall sentiment.

And earlier on Wednesday figures from trade body UK Finance showed credit card lending growth slowed in August to its weakest since February 2015.

“Consumer caution may be increasing,” economist Howard Archer of consultants EY Item Club said, adding that households could be less keen on borrowing more now given political and economic uncertainty ahead, and reduced credit availability.

British consumer sentiment has fallen to a six-year low due to increased worries about job security and the impact trade tensions and political uncertainty will have on individuals’ finances, a survey showed on Thursday.

Market research company YouGov said its monthly consumer sentiment indicator, compiled with economic consultancy Cebr, dropped to 103.4 in September from 104.0 in August, its lowest level since May 2013.

“It is clear now that the UK has shifted into a slower growth mode due to a combination of ongoing domestic political uncertainty and global economic headwinds,” said Kay Neufeld, head of macroeconomics at Cebr.

Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months to June and the Bank of England and other economists predict only modest growth in the three months to September, with Britain still at risk of a disruptive Brexit on Oct. 31.

Uncertainty about the terms and timing on which Britain will leave the EU has depressed business investment, but consumer demand has proved resilient so far, according to official data.

There are tentative signs this may be starting to crack.

A separate survey by IHS Markit on Monday showed households’ concerns about the outlook for their personal finances was the highest in nearly six years, and on Wednesday the Confederation of British Industry reported a fall in retail sales.

But in the short term British households are benefiting from record-low unemployment, as well as wages that are rising at the fastest rate in more than 10 years.

Figures from pay analysis company XpertHR, also released on Thursday, showed that the average basic pay settlement at large employers remained at a 10-year high of 2.5% in the three months to the end of August, unchanged since the start of the year. Official measures of wage growth tend to run somewhat higher, as they also factor in pay rises achieved through promotions and job changes.

Reuters