Japan’s exports face sharp fall, consumer prices drop further

Imploding demand due to the coronavirus pandemic is likely to have resulted in Japan’s exports in May suffering their biggest decline since the 2009 global financial crisis, while consumer prices fell for a second straight month, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

More weak data will reinforce expectations for a sharp contraction in the world’s third-largest economy this quarter due to the fall out from the pandemic.

Exports are expected to have fallen 26.1% in May from a year earlier, the steepest drop since September 2009 when they tumbled 30.6%, according to the median forecast from the poll of 17 economists. Exports declined 21.9% in April.

“Although there is some movement to re-open economic activities in the United States and Europe, exports of transport machinery and capital goods fell significantly due to weak auto sales and declines in capital spending,” Yusuke Shimoda, senior economist at Japan Research Institute, said.

The poll forecast a 20.4% decline in imports in May from a year earlier, following a revised 7.1% fall in April.

That implied a trade deficit of 1.07 trillion yen ($9.99 billion) in May.

The finance ministry will publish the trade balance data on Wednesday. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices but includes oil costs, likely dipped 0.1% in May from a year earlier, according to the poll’s median forecast. It would be second consecutive month that prices have fallen on a year-on-year basis.

In April, the core CPI fell 0.2%, which was the first year-on-year decline since December 2016.

“Consumer spending tumbled as people refrained from going out and their movements were also restricted. Downward pressure on prices has increased,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

The government will announce core CPI on Friday.

Analysts in the poll forecast the Bank of Japan would keep its policy interest rate at minus 0.1%, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around 0% when it holds a policy meeting on June 15-16.

Meanwhile, a $94 billion emergency fund that can be tapped without parliamentary oversight has been branded Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “pocket money” by opposition lawmakers alarmed at its unprecedented size.

Abe has said the 10 trillion yen ($94 billion) will allow the government to move swiftly to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus outbreak - a “once in a century crisis” which has devastated the economy.

“We’ll report to parliament how we spend the money as needed and at the appropriate time,” Abe told parliament on Friday.

But at 20 times the usual sum for a reserve fund - and roughly equal the amount Japan spends on education and defence combined - the fund has even raised questions from the bureaucrats who have discretion on how to spend the money.

“It’s awful,” said a finance ministry official. “It’s a huge blank cheque that would leave Japan with a bad precedent,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly.

Japan’s parliament approved on Friday a record $300 billion second extra budget - including the reserve fund - to finance part of an economic stimulus package of $1.1 trillion.

The issue highlights how Abe, pressed with time and under pressure to match massive stimulus deployed by other major economies, has rankled taxpayers with spending that one of the most indebted nations can ill afford.

“Lawmakers of Abe’s ruling party wanted a magical wallet and thought they can get one because we’re in a crisis,” said independent political affairs analyst Atsuo Ito.

“Fiscal reform has become a distant goal. The cost of big spending will fall upon the next generation.”

Some analysts, however, argue the size is justified given the need to guard against a second wave of infection.

“You need huge sums in reserve when you’re dealing with so much unpredictability. You need to be ready for emergencies,” said Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at NLI Research Institute.

Japan typically sets aside reserves of around several hundred billion yen in the annual budget, largely to meet disaster relief and other unexpected costs.

The government has discretion on how to use the money and needs to report to parliament only after the funds are tapped.

Such reserves are usually kept small because it is an exception to a constitutional rule that requires budgetary spending to receive prior approval by parliament.

Reuters