Markets improve on Trump’s health progress, stimulus hopes

Global shares gained ground and crude prices rose on Monday as investor risk appetite was stoked by renewed stimulus optimism and news of President Donald Trump’s health progress.

US stocks are rising Monday. The S&P 500 was 1.1% higher in morning trading, with raw-material producers and other companies that most need a strengthening economy rising to some of the biggest gains.

US stocks closed sharply lower on Friday after news of Trump’s infection with COVID-19 compounded mounting uncertainties surrounding the looming presidential election.

But while Trump’s condition remains unclear, he took a brief ride in a presidential motorcade to wave to his supporters, and his doctors said he could be released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center as early as Monday.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday progress was being made in negotiations on a bipartisan pandemic relief package, fueling optimism that a new round of stimulus could be in the offing, more than two months after emergency unemployment benefits expired for millions of Americans.

Democratic contender Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the US presidential race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 311.32 points, or 1.12%, to 27,994.13, the S&P 500 gained 38.98 points, or 1.16%, to 3,387.42 and the Nasdaq Composite added 170.05 points, or 1.54%, to 11,245.07.

Positive health updates regarding Trump and a flurry of deal activity helped European stocks advance.

Emerging market stocks rose 0.88%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 1.25% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.23%.

The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%. A survey on Monday showed the euro zone’s economic recovery faltered last month as new restrictions sent its dominant service sector into reverse.

IHS Markit’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4, just above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

“Stock markets in Europe are showing respectable gains... on the back of the optimism surrounding the health of President Trump,” said CMC Markets analyst David Madden.

Crude prices jumped as uncertainties abated, and were further supported by an escalating oil workers strike in Norway, where Equinor shut down four of its offshore oil and gas fields.

US crude rose 5.51% to $39.09 per barrel and Brent was last at $41.10, up 4.66% on the day.

The dollar index slipped and riskier currencies advanced.

The dollar index fell 0.45%, with the euro up 0.57% to $1.1783.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.28% versus the greenback at 105.64 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2971, up 0.31% on the day.

Stimulus hopes and news of Trump’s improving health also gave a boost to US Treasury yields.

Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 16/32 in price to yield 0.7469%, from 0.694% late on Friday.

The 30-year bond last fell 53/32 in price to yield 1.55%, from 1.48% late on Friday.

Gold jumped 1% on Monday on optimism around an additional US stimulus bill and a weakened dollar, despite gains in the stock markets after reports that US President Donald Trump could soon be discharged from the hospital.

Spot Gold was up 0.8% at $1,914.60 per ounce as of 11:23am. US Gold futures rose 0.7% to $1,920.20. Optimism over fiscal stimulus in the world’s largest economy came into play after upbeat weekend comments from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said progress was being made on relief legislation.

Meanwhile, the dominant US services sector saw growth accelerate in September, posting its fourth consecutive month of expansion, according to an industry survey released Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose 0.9 points to 57.8 percent, revving up after slightly slower growth in August as employment recovered following six months of contraction amid the Covid-19 crisis.

Employment rose 3.9 points to 51.8 percent, putting it above the 50 percent mark that indicates expansion.

However only nine industries saw job gains, while six continued to shed employees, according to the survey.

ISM survey chairman Anthony Nieves noted that 16 of the 17 services industries posted growth overall, but the recovery from the pandemic hit continues to face challenges.

“Respondents’ comments remain mostly optimistic about business conditions and the economy, which correlates directly to those businesses that are operating,” he said in a statement.

However, “There continues to be capacity and logistics issues, as business volumes have increased.”

In the survey, a respondent in the entertainment industry lamented a “bleak” outlook, while a construction executive said although business is recovering, “Lack of available labor is having a significant impact on our ability to fulfil orders.”

Agencies