China’s exports maintain growth momentum; imports drop slightly

China’s exports maintained growth momentum and imports made slight drop, a survey showed. The country’s foreign trade is estimated to have grown quite strongly in October due to a recovery in global and domestic markets, a Reuters survey showed, but there are fears that the coronavirus upsurge overseas could slow trade in coming months.

Meanwhile, the third China International Import Expo (CIIE), which opened on Thursday at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Centre, will close on Tuesday. Guests from all around the world are in Shanghai to visit pavilions on lifestyle, medical equipment, and healthcare products, food and agricultural products, automobiles, and trade services.

The China International Import Expo is a trade fair held in autumn annually since 2018 in Shanghai, China. It is the world’s first import-themed national-level expo. It will feature exhibitions of multiple countries and businesses and it is regarded as a broad trade forum.

In October, Chinese exports are expected to have risen 9.3% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate of a Reuters poll of 20 economists, down slightly from the 9.9% gain in September.

Imports likely rose 9.5% on year, which economists regarded as a solid increase though it would be slower than in September, when imports rebounded 13.2%.

China’s trade surplus is expected to have widened to $46 billion in October from $37 billion in September, according to the poll.

The forecasts could suggest the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy from the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic remains intact.

China’s economy is expected to expand around 2% this year - the weakest in over three decades but still much stronger than other major economies as it emerged faster from the coronavirus crisis, having been the first country to be hit by the pandemic.

The upward momentum was also evident in China’s official manufacturing survey for October, as the new export orders sub-index expanded at a quicker pace.

Analysts at Nomura said in a research note that a pause in the re-opening of some overseas economies due to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, and a high base last year would have weighed on October’s import growth. They also expected less growth in crude oil imports.

Some analysts also noted there were fewer working days last month compared with same period last year due to the long national holiday, which might lead to a slightly softer reading.

And they said China’s trade performance could suffer over the next few months as stringent virus control measures are re-imposed by trade partners due to recent resurgence of COVID-19 infections in Europe and the United States.

Some companies reported that second wave in infections abroad had lengthened procurement periods for imports of raw materials and increased transport costs.

Separately, Australia said on Friday it was closely monitoring exports to China amid “deeply troubling” reports that Chinese buyers have been told not to purchase seven categories of Australian goods ranging from coal to wine, further souring diplomatic tensions.

Australian media have reported that Chinese importers had been informally warned by customs officials that commodities including copper ore, barley, sugar, timber and lobster will face increased inspections from Friday.

Trade minister Simon Birmingham said Chinese officials had publicly and privately denied any coordinated effort was being taken against Australia, and said he hoped Beijing “is true to its word”.

“They deny any discriminatory actions that are being taken. But that doesn’t seem to be what industry is seeing and hearing at present,” he said on radio station 5AA.

A Chinese source briefed on the matter said that trade in the goods was effectively halted for now, and other products such as beef could be affected in future.

“It was not an absolute order, but a suggestion,” the person said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China buys nearly a third of Australia’s exports.

A Beijing-based wine importer and distributor told Reuters his customs agent in Shanghai was called to a meeting last week and warned that Australian wine would no longer be processed by customs after Nov. 6.

An employee at the company was also called to a meeting in Beijing on Monday and told that Australian wine would not be processed “until other issues were addressed,” he said.