UK, European Union trade slumps in first month of new Brexit rules

Trade between the United Kingdom and the European Union was hammered in the first month of their new post-Brexit relationship, with record falls in British exports and imports of goods as COVID-19 restrictions continued on both sides.

British goods exports to the EU, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, slumped by 40.7% in January compared to December, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. Imports fell by 28.8% - another record.

The ONS said the COVID-19 pandemic, which left Britain under lockdown measures in January, made it hard to quantify the Brexit impact from new customs arrangements, and there were changes in the way data was collected too.

But there were still signs of a Brexit hit.

Trade in chemicals was especially weak, reflecting the winding-down of a rush to stockpile pharmaceuticals ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period, the ONS said.

The ONS highlighted a 64% fall in exports of food and live animals to the EU - including shellfish and fish.

It pointed to delays caused by red tape reported by the Scottish Seafood Association, with consignment sign-offs reportedly taking six times longer.

“External evidence suggests some of the slower trade for goods in early January 2021 could be attributable to disruption caused by the end of the transition period,” the ONS said.

Many companies stockpiled goods in late 2020 to avoid any disruption, deepening the fall in trade in January.

The ONS said its separate business survey suggested that trade picked up towards the end of the month.

Britain on Thursday delayed the introduction of a range of post-Brexit import checks on goods from the EU by around six months, saying businesses needed more time to prepare because of the impact of the pandemic.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Britain’s new independent trade policy means it can focus on deals with faster-growing economies around the world, although many trade analysts are sceptical that this boost will outweigh lost EU trade.

Britain’s official budget forecaster says the country’s new trade arrangements with the EU, the world’s biggest single market, will erode its long-run productivity by 4% compared with staying in the bloc.

“This month’s unique combination of factors made it inevitable that we would see some unusual figures this January,” said David Frost, a senior minister who was Johnson’s chief Brexit negotiator.

Economists say the hit to EU trade - and any benefits from Brexit - will become clearer.

“While some of the non-tariff barriers to trade, such as the increase in red tape and form-filling, will be ironed out in the short term, the combination of COVID-19 and Brexit will ultimately prove to be a long-term drag on growth,” said Ana Boata, head of macroeconomic research at trade credit insurer Euler Hermes.

Britain’s overall goods trade deficit, including non-EU countries, narrowed to 9.826 billion pounds ($13.70 billion) in January from 14.315 billion pounds in December.

Britain on Friday unveiled details of its Turing student exchange programme, which controversially replaced the European Erasmus scheme causing an outcry after Brexit.

The programme, named after the British mathematician Alan Turing, aims to help 35,000 British students “of all income groups from across the country experience fantastic education opportunities in any country they choose”, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement.

Unlike Erasmus, which operated in EU countries, Johnson said the £110-million ($154-million, 128-million-euro)Turing programme would be “truly global”.

Britain left the Erasmus scheme, in which it had participated since 1987, when it left the European Union at the beginning of this year, causing consternation among students and higher education bodies.

But Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said the emphasis of its replacement would be “social mobility and value for money”.

It will “open up more opportunities for international education and travel to all of our students” than the Erasmus scheme, “especially for those from disadvantaged backgrounds”.

Eligible schools and universities can apply for funding to cover their costs and allow disadvantaged students to get a grant of up to £490 per month for travel and living expenses.

But for some, the new programme falls short of its predecessor.

The new scheme offers no help with tuition fees, which can be “astronomical”, said Carol Monaghan from the pro-European Scottish National Party.

The British public’s expectations for inflation over the next 12 months held at their lowest level in more than four years, in sharp contrast to a recent rise in market expectations, Bank of England data showed on Friday.

Average expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained at 2.7% - the joint-lowest reading since August 2016 alongside November’s figure, based on a survey conducted between Feb. 9 and Feb. 22.