World Bank expects UAE’s real GDP to grow by 5.9% in 2022

The World Bank has hailed the UAE’s “favourable business environment and world-class infrastructure”, expecting the country’s real GDP to grow by 5.9 per cent in 2022.

This came as the World Bank announced its new Gulf Economic Update (GEU) where it said higher oil receipts supplemented with a gradual non-oil recovery in the Emirates will bolster fiscal revenue resulting in a fiscal surplus to hover around 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2022.

Recent bilateral free trade agreements with Asian partners supported by strong oil exports will place the UAE’s current account surplus at 11.2 per cent of GDP in 2022, according to the report.

However, the bank expected the real GDP to moderate to 4.1 per cent in 2023 as slower global demand may dampen growth due to tightening financial conditions.

According to the GEU, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are projected to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2022 before moderating to 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent in 2023 and 2024.

“Easing of pandemic restrictions, and positive developments in the hydrocarbon market drove strong recoveries in 2021 and 2022 across the GCC. Strong economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks raised inflation in the GCC to an average rate of 2.1 per cent in 2021 - up from 0.8 per cent in 2020.”

Supported by higher hydrocarbon prices, the report continued, the GCC region is “expected to register strong twin surpluses in 2022 and continue over the medium term. The regional fiscal balance is projected to register a surplus of 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2022 - the first surplus since 2014 -- while the external balance surplus is expected to reach 17.2 per cent of GDP.”

“There is an excellent and timely opportunity to diversify the economy further using a green growth strategy, and playing a leading role in the global transition to low-carbon economies,” said Issam Abousleiman, World Bank Regional Director for the GCC. “The region could use the green growth transition to focus policies on developing green technologies and associated skilled labour that would reverse trends in productivity and enable the region to grow faster.”

The GCC countries’ total GDP, according to the report, is projected to be close to $2 trillion in 2022. “If the GCC continued business as usual, their combined GDP would grow to an expected $6 trillion by 2050. However, if the GCC countries implemented a green growth strategy that would help and accelerate their economic diversification, GDP could have the potential to grow to over $13 trillion by 2050.”

Dubai consolidated its status as the world’s leading foreign direct investment (FDI) hub, retaining its first rank globally for attracting FDI projects during H1 2022.

In a record first-half achievement for the emirate, Dubai attracted 492 FDI projects during the first six months of 2022, an 80.2 percent increase compared to the same period in 2021, according to data published by Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism (DET).

Dubai also ranked first globally in attracting greenfield FDI projects during the same period this year, according to the Financial Times Ltd’s “FDi Markets”, the most comprehensive online database on cross-border greenfield investments. Greenfield projects accounted for a 56 percent share of Dubai’s FDI projects during the period, according to the Dubai Investment Development Agency (Dubai FDI), a DET entity, using data from its Dubai FDI Monitor. Dubai witnessed FDI inflows of Dhs13.72 billion in H1 2022, reflecting a growth of 14.6 percent compared to the same period last year.

WAM