World markets near 15-month high; China data dampens mood

World shares were steady near their recent 15-month highs and the dollar held close to a one-year low on Tuesday as investors paused to take stock of weak economic data from China and waited for US retail sales data.

Asian stocks fell earlier in the session as markets caught up with growth data from Monday showing the post-pandemic bounce in China’s economy was over.

Deutsche Bank said it was lowering its forecast for China’s economic growth this year, following similar moves on Monday by J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

The MSCI World Equity index was little changed at 697.41, just below the 698.39 reached on Friday, which was the highest since April 2022.

European shares were mixed, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2%, London’s FTSE 100 up 0.1% and Germany’s DAX down 0.1%.

“China is super important to Europe,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index. “There are a lot of concerns about what weakness in China could mean for Germany and the German economy and I think we’re seeing that being played on in the DAX, which is struggling to push higher.” Wall Street futures pointed to investors staying on the sidelines as they waited for US retail sales and industrial production figures later in the session, which could give indications about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Nasdaq e-minis were down 0.1%, while S&P 500 e-minis were little changed.

Investors are also keeping an eye on quarterly company results this week. Some of the largest US banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, said on Friday they got a profit boost from higher rates, pointing towards a resilient economy.

Bank of America said its profit rose in the second quarter, as it earned more from customers’ loan payments. Goldman Sachs earnings are due on Wednesday.

The Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week.

“Any sense that the Federal Reserve has reached peak interest rates or any sense that they’re turning less hawkish or more dovish will be that injection that stocks need to take the next leg higher,” Cincotta said.

Expectations that the Fed and ECB will diverge on rate hikes have caused the dollar to weaken recently.

Money markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Fed at its policy meeting later this month, though there are expectations that rates will come down as early as December.

Conversely, investors expect the ECB and the Bank of England to extend their rate-hike cycle.

The US dollar index was down 0.2% at 99.749, having reached its lowest since April 2022 on Friday.

The euro hit a fresh 17-month high of $1.1276 around 0732 GMT, before easing to trade up 0.2% on the day at $1.12495.

Euro zone government bond yields were down, with the German 10-year yield hitting its lowest since July 3 at 2.368%, down around 8 basis points on the day.

The yield on US 10-year notes was down around 3 bps on the day, at 3.7638%.

Spot gold was up 0.39% at $1,962.29 an ounce.

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors weighed a possible tightening of US crude supplies against weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth.

Both benchmark contracts had fallen more than 1.5% on Monday following lacklustre economic data from China, the world’s largest oil importer, as well as the partial restart of some Libyan oilfields.

Brent crude was up 26 cents at $78.76 a barrel by 1151 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 28 cents to $74.43 a barrel in relatively muted trading, with the contract set to expire on Thursday.

The September WTI contract was also up 28 cents to $74.36.

Market participants were awaiting industry data later on Tuesday that is expected to show US crude oil stockpiles and product inventories fell last week.

Meanwhile, US shale oil production is projected in August to see its first monthly decline since December 2022, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday.

Sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) data from China released on Monday “kept a cautious lid on prices with some reservations in its demand recovery,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore.

China’s GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with average analyst forecasts of 7.3%.

Still, global supplies are expected to see a boost from the resumption of output at two of three Libyan fields that were shuttered last week. Output was affected by a protest against the abduction of a former finance minister.