World markets up as investors assess prospect of Trump win

World stock indexes and Treasury yields rose on Monday while the dollar dipped as investors weighed the prospect of Republican Donald Trump winning the US presidential race after he survived an assassination attempt over the weekend.

The Dow hit a record high early, helped by some upbeat earnings results including from Goldman Sachs, which was up 1.6%.

Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.

Some view a Trump victory as likely to mean more tax cuts and less regulation. Crypto stocks, prison operators and other shares jumped on Monday.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group were up 32%. Trump owns a majority stake in the company. Crypto stocks gained as bitcoin rose to a two-week high. The S&P 500 energy sector was up 1.9%.

Online betting site PredictIt showed bets of an election win for Trump at 67 cents, up from Friday’s 60 cents, with Democrat Joe Biden at 27 cents.

“In a Republican administration, you’ll see a lower tax policy, lower regulatory policy... that’s typically good for stocks. We’re seeing some of that in terms of forward-looking expectations from investors at this point,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

The motive behind a 20-year-old gunman’s attempt on the life of Trump remained a mystery, with the suspect having been neutralized and the FBI unable to determine an ideology that may have been behind the attack.

Traders also will be watching comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day for any fresh clues on the likelihood of a September interest rate cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 304.21 points, or 0.76%, to 40,306.29, the S&P 500 gained 49.73 points, or 0.89%, to 5,665.13 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 230.51 points, or 1.25%, to 18,628.96.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 3.56 points, or 0.43%, to 832.11, while the STOXX 600 index fell 0.91%.

Dour updates from British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.

US retail sales data due on Tuesday was likely to be closely watched for clues on how consumers are faring.

The dollar index, which measures its performance against a basket of currencies, fell 0.21% at 104.07, with the euro up 0.09% at $1.0915. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.03% to 157.86.

Investors are trying to gauge how soon the Fed may be able to cut rates, with inflation edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target and rising concerns about how long the job market can stay strong.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 3.1 basis points to 4.218% from 4.187% late on Friday.

US crude lost 0.12% to $82.11 a barrel and Brent rose to $85.06 per barrel, up 0.04% on the day.

Separately, assets managed by BlackRock hit a record $10.65 trillion in the second quarter thanks to rising client asset values and as investors pumped money into the company’s exchange-traded funds, the world’s largest asset manager said on Monday.

Stock markets have scaled record highs in the last few months amid rising expectations of a soft landing for the US economy and an investor frenzy around artificial intelligence-linked stocks.

The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped about 4% in the reported quarter, boosting BlackRock’s assets under management to $10.65 trillion, up from $9.43 trillion a year earlier and $10.5 trillion in the first quarter.

BlackRock expects to close in the second half of the year two acquisitions that will bolster its presence in infrastructure investments and in private markets, two key areas of growth. “We see unbelievable growth opportunities for our clients and shareholders for 2024 and beyond,” BlackRock’s chairman and CEO Larry Fink said in a conference call, adding he saw great potential for investments into the energy transition and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

“We are wildly bullish as more and more clients are going to be using infrastructure debt,” he said.

Last month the company agreed to buy private markets data provider Preqin in a deal valued at nearly $3.2 billion. The acquisition follows BlackRock’s $12.5-billion deal this year to buy Global Infrastructure Partners, a bet on alternative assets that will put the firm at the heart of investing in infrastructure projects around the globe.

“There’s growth in private markets... but more importantly you can charge much, much higher fees on private assets than you can on an iShares ETF,” said Kyle Sanders, senior equity research analyst at Edward Jones.

“They want to move into higher-margin, higher-fee products, and alternatives would be at the top of the list,” he said.

BlackRock registered total net inflows of $81.57 billion in the quarter, slightly above $80.16 billion a year earlier. Exchange-traded funds captured the majority of flows, at $83 billion, their best start to a year on record, BlackRock said.

Agencies