US jobless claims increase as layoffs settle at higher levels

US filings for unemployment benefits rose again last week and appear to be settling consistently at a slightly higher though still healthy level.

Jobless claims for the week ending July 13 rose by 20,000 to 243,000 from 223,000 the previous week, the labour Department reported. It’s the eighth straight week claims came in above 220,000. Before that stretch, claims had been below that level in all but three weeks so far in 2024.

The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose after declining last week for the first time in 10 weeks. About 1.87 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits for the week of July 6, around 20,000 more than the previous week. That’s the most since November of 2021.

Weekly unemployment claims are widely considered as representative of layoffs.

Continuing claims have been on the rise in recent months, suggesting that some Americans receiving unemployment benefits are finding it more challenging to land jobs.

The four-week average of claims, which evens out some of the week-to-week volatility, rose by 1,000 to 234,750.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate 11 times beginning in March of 2022 in an attempt to extinguish the four-decade high inflation that shook the economy after it rebounded from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The Fed’s intention was to cool off a red-hot labour market and slow wage growth, which it says can fuel inflation.

Strong consumer demand and a resilient labour market has helped to avert a recession that many economists forecast during the extended flurry of rate hikes. As inflation continues to ease, the Fed’s goal of a soft-landing - bringing down inflation without causing a recession and mass layoffs - appears within reach.

Few experts are expecting a rate cut when Fed’ policy makers meet later this month. However, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September.

While the labour market remains historically healthy, recent government data suggest some weakening.

Until last week, applications for jobless benefits were trending higher in June after mostly staying below 220,000 this year. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June, despite the fact that America’s employers added 206,000 jobs.

Job postings in May rose slightly to 8.1 million, however, April’s figure was revised lower to 7.9 million, the first reading below 8 million since February 2021.

Separately, US consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June amid cheaper gasoline and moderating rents, firmly putting disinflation back on track and drawing the Federal Reserve another step closer to cutting interest rates in September.

The second straight month of benign consumer price readings reported by the Labor Department on Thursday should help to bolster confidence among officials at the US central bank that inflation is cooling after surging in the first quarter.

The report also showed a measure of underlying inflation posting the smallest increase since August 2021 on a monthly basis. Financial markets saw a very high probability of the Fed starting its easing cycle in September.

“Barring rogue price data in July, the Fed has a checkered flag to reduce rates in September,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “This guidance will be solidified at the July meeting.”

The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month, the first drop since May 2020, after being unchanged in May, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

The CPI was weighed down by a 3.8% decline in gasoline prices, which followed a 3.6% decrease in May. Shelter costs, which include rents, increased a moderate 0.2% after advancing 0.4% in May.

Food prices rose 0.2% after edging up 0.1% in May. Grocery store prices ticked up 0.1%, with increases in dairy products, meat, fish and eggs offset by declines in the costs of fruits and vegetables as well as cereals.

In the 12 months through June, the CPI climbed 3.0%, the smallest gain since June 2023. That followed a 3.3% advance in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI ticking up 0.1% and gaining 3.1% year-on-year.

The broad moderation in inflation aligns with reports from retailers about consumers pushing back against higher prices. Retailers, including Target (TGT.N), opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab, have cut prices on a range of goods. It was also a rare dose of good news for President Joe Biden in recent days, whose popularity has been eroded by the high cost of living.

The annual increase in consumer prices has slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.