Lebanon fears Gaza-like carnage as Israel ramps up airstrikes across the country

When she first heard about the evacuation warnings Israel was sending to residents of Lebanon, Aline Naser’s thoughts immediately turned to Gaza.

For the past year, the 26-year-old Beirut resident has been following with horror the reports about besieged Palestinians in the Gaza Strip ordered to move from one place to the other, fleeing to "humanitarian zones” only to be bombed and ordered to leave again.

The Israeli calls for Lebanese citizens to evacuate ahead of a widening air campaign, delivered via mobile phone alerts, calls and leaflets this week, seemed chillingly familiar.

"It’s definitely something on the back of my mind, and we don’t really know where exactly is safe,” she said.

Almost a year after the start of its war in Gaza, Israel has turned its focus on Lebanon, significantly ratcheting up its campaign against its archenemy Hizbollah. Among many in Lebanon, there is fear that Israel’s military operations in Lebanon would follow the same Gaza playbook: Evacuation orders, mass displacement and overwhelming airstrikes.

There are key differences between Gaza and Lebanon and how Israel has so far conducted its operations, which it says aim to push back Hizbollah from the border so that tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hizbollah’s rocket attacks can return to their homes. Although it has said it is preparing for a possible ground operation, Israel has so far not sent troops into Lebanon.

This combination of the satellite images released by Maxar Technologies shows a view of northern Lebanon, on Aug.9, 2024, before airstrikes, up, and on Sept.26, 2024, after airstrikes. AP

Still, there are fears that Israel’s actions in Gaza, including the use of overwhelming and what rights groups and the United Nations have described as disproportionate force, would be repeated in Lebanon. Top Israeli officials have threatened to repeat the destruction of Gaza in Lebanon if the Hizbollah fire continues.

In the first week after launching war, Israel ordered 1.1 million civilians in the Gaza Strip to relocate from the north to the south, sowing confusion and fear in the overcrowded enclave.

Since then, the Israeli military has issued dozens of evacuation orders calling on Palestinians to evacuate to Israeli-designated "humanitarian zones.”

With Gaza's borders sealed, residents of the crammed territory are trapped with nowhere to go, whereas in Lebanon, those fleeing Israeli strikes have been able to move to safer areas. Thousands have fled to neighbouring Syria, while others have left through the country’s airport.

As the region appeared to be teetering toward another all-out war, Jana Bsat, 25, who works for a media analysis company in Beirut, said she now has a bag packed, ready for immediate evacuation. She feels it’s only a matter of time.

"It feels surreal, to be honest. We heard about what was happening in Gaza and now we’re experiencing it for ourselves,” she said.

"I am in disgust of all this fear-mongering and psychological torture,” she said, adding: "But then you remember, it’s all part of a warfare strategy and it’s not going to stop anytime soon.”

While Israel’s actions in Lebanon may have echoes of Gaza, the conflicts are different. In Gaza, Israel’s goal is the complete destruction of Hamas, whereas Israel’s stated goal in Lebanon is to push Hizbollah away from its border. Whereas Hamas rules Gaza, Hizbollah is a powerful militia with enormous influence inside Lebanon, and has representatives in the country's parliament and government.

Ali Safa, a 30-year-old interior designer who fled to Beirut from south Lebanon with his family this week, said he isn’t worried about the Gaza scenario being repeated in Lebanon.

"Gaza is an open prison, it is besieged. Lebanon is much larger, it is not encircled. And it has Hizbollah, which is a much bigger force, much better-equipped than Hamas,” he said.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, speaking at the United Nations on Wednesday, said the world "cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”

Bsat said at some point she, too, got used to hearing sonic booms that made the windows in her house shake.

"The drones I also got used to and now, unfortunately, the bombing,” she said via Whatsapp. "I’ve come to terms with reality, but my hands still can’t stop shaking as I’m writing this,” she said. "I’m still dreading what is going to happen here.”

Associated Press