External powers scramble to retain sway in Syria

As a first step in Syria’s renewed peace process, talks on a constitution began last week in Geneva although fighting rages across the north of the country and external powers scrabble to retain influence.

After months of preparation, UN-mediator Gier Pederson convened talks involving 150 representatives, one-third each from the government, opposition and civil society. Discussions began on a positive statement by Hadi al-Bahra, co-chairman of the Riyadh-based opposition, who said that it is his and Syria’s duty to find a way to live with the government and end eight years of war. “We are all Syrian, and as Syrians we have to live together.”

The country’s constitution was meant to be the main topic of the talks, but the government initially focused on the illegal occupation of Syrian territory by Al-Qaeda-connected foreign and local fighters, Turkey and the US.

The opposition seeks to write a new constitution. Previously prepared only to amend the constitution adopted in 2012 after the outbreak of war, the government has agreed to “consider a new constitution,” stated Ahmad Kuzbari, head of Damascus’ delegation. Forty-five figures, 15 from each representation, will be chosen to draft the document.

Promoted by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the talks are designed to secure the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 2254 of 2015. It links a peace process to a nation-wide ceasefire which excludes Daesh and Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, the drafting of a new constitution, and UN monitored elections. There is no mention of the fate of President Bashar al-Assad who now rules 65 per cent of Syria and has no intention of resigning. It has become clear, even to his opponents, that his fall would fracture Syria into fiefdoms of warlords moulded by Al-Qaeda and Daesh.

This resolution overtook the 2012 Geneva plan for a political settlement which called for formation of a transitional authority including members of the government and opposition, a new constitution, and elections. UN experts serving in Damascus told The Gulf Today this proposal was out of date when it was put forward because Western powers, led by the US, insisted that Assad must stand down at a time his forces controlled most of Syria. This line was promptly rejected by Assad, Russia, and Iran, his allies. They saw this plan as a means to unseat Assad and turn over Syria to the divided, disputatious opposition with no support in Syria but backed by Western and regional governments. Consequently, talks failed and the war continues.  Assad has vowed to regain all Syria’s territory while local and external antagonists seek to prevent him from doing so.

Fighting is taking place in north-western Idlib province along the entire Syrian-Turkish border although Daesh has lost the territory it held in Syria.

Turkish-protected Idlib is the last provincial redoubt of Al-Qaeda’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a host of small radical religious factions and Turkey’s surrogates which continue to battle the Syrian army, the Russian air force, and pro-Iranian militiamen.

Turkey occupies 3,460 square kilometres of Syrian territory west of the Euphrates River, including Afrin district and the towns of Al-Bab, Azaz, Dabiq and Jarablus. Last month, Donald Trump handed over to Turkey a 30-kilometre deep, 120-kilometre long stretch of territory from Tal Abyad to Ras al-Ain east of the Euphrates. Trump has abandoned to the tender mercies of Turkey’s army and surrogates, Kurdish and Arab fighters the US recruited to fight Daesh in Syria. More than 200 local fighters and civilians have been killed and 300,000 civilians have been driven from their towns and villages.

Ankara has described the areas of its hostile occupation as “safe zones” but they are not “safe” for civilians who live there.  At least 13 people were killed and 30 wounded when a car bomb exploded in Tal Abyad  on Saturday.

Among the casualties were fighters from Turkey’s client militia, the Free Syrian Army, which Ankara has deployed in the front lines of the battle to seize Syrian territory.  This land grab, allowed by the US and Russia, is illegal under international law and a flagrant infringement of Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Syrian army, backed by Russian military police, has moved into areas not occupied by Turkey, including the flashpoint town of Manbij, west of the Euphrates, and Ain al-Arab (Kobane in Kurdish) and Qamishli east of the river.

This deployment has, for the time being, thwarted Turkey’s ultimate objective of seizing control of the entire 900-kilometre border zone.

The external powers involved in the struggle for Syria have their own separate agendas.  Russia and Iran are determined to prevent the fall of Assad, the dismemberment of Syria, and the destabilisation of Syria’s neighbours, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.  However, Russia does not want to alienate Turkey’s expansionist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with whom Moscow has profitable relations although he continues to pursue Assad’s ouster.

As a compromise, Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed with Erdogan on a deal to evacuate Kurdish forces regarded as “terrorists” by Ankara from the border area and to mount joint military patrols to ensure compliance. In exchange, Putin insists that Turkey must withdraw its forces as soon as Damascus can take over security along the border and respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Shia Iran’s motive is to prevent the return of Sunni extremists in both Syria and Iraq.  Tehran does not seek to occupy Syrian territory once this is achieved.

Erratic Trump will do anything to secure his re-election next year. To gain credit with his domestic backers, he has promised to end US involvement in “endless wars.” After facing sharp criticism for withdrawing US troops from northern Syria, he has kept 1,000 in the country. Trump has maintained a US base at Tanf in the extreme southeast on the Jordanian border and is deploying hundreds of soldiers to hold onto Syria’s oil fields in Deir al-Zor province. This operation is seen as a face-saver for Trump as Syria’s oil fields now produce only 40,000 barrels a day as compared to 380,000 barrels a day before the war.  It has been reported that US forces have entered the Kurdish majority town of Qamishli at the eastern-most end of the border zone to, as they say, “show the flag,” and, perhaps, re-establish a permanent base there.  In spite of Trump, Pentagon seems determined to secure US politico-strategic assets in Syria.