Grave ramifications of Trump’s Syria pullout

Last week the Pentagon issued a damning report on Donald Trump’s withdrawal of troops from northern Syria. The report, based on intelligence provided by the Defence Department’s investigation arm, said the pull-out has empowered Daesh to regroup and, once again, threaten the region, the West, and countries in Africa and Asia where it already has a presence.

The Pentagon’s Inspector General Stated bluntly that Daesh has “exploited the Turkish incursion and subsequent drawdown of US troops to reconstitute capabilities and resources within Syria and strengthen its ability to plan attacks abroad...(Daesh) will likely have the time and space to target the West and provide support to its 19 global branches and networks...In the long run, it will probably seek to regain control of some Syrian population centres and expand its global footprint.” He said the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by US special forces “would likely have little effect on Islamic State’s ability to reconstitute.”

By pulling out most of the remaining 1,000 — down from 2,000 — US forces from the Syrian-Turkish border zone, Trump gave a green light to Turkey to carry out its long planned invasion of northern Syria. In response to the pull-out, Kurdish fighters were compelled to shift from battling Daesh remnants which have taken refuge in Syria’s eastern desert, gone underground, or crossed into Iraq. It is currently plagued more than Syria by bombings mounted by fugitive Daesh elements.  

Ankara claims it must clear from the border zone Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), formations which it brands “terrorist,” although they have never mounted attacks on Turkish territory.  Once Turkish troops, tanks, a surrogate Syrian militiamen entered Syrian territory, the YPG and is Arab allies fighting in the US-sponsored Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended the territory it held.

After several days of fighting, the US and Russia reached a dirty deal to cede control of a 120 kilo-metre-long and 30 kilometre-wide stretch of territory between the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain located on the Syrian-Turkish border.

Washington and Moscow claim the objective of the deal was to prevent an all-out Turkish invasion of the Syrian side of the 900-kilometre long border zone.

Turkey already holds strategic pockets in northern Aleppo province although its land grab and ethnic cleansing of Kurds Syria is illegal under the UN Charter and international law.

Washington and Moscow did not need to make a deal. Since it controls Syria’s north-eastern airspace, the US — along with its Western allies — could have told Ankara it would bomb Turkish troops and client militiamen the moment they crossed into Syria.  Russia failed to take such action in early 2018 when Turkey invaded, occupied and expelled half the population of the Kurdish-majority district of Afrin in Aleppo province.  The reason for inaction: US and Russian efforts to court Turkey have led both to forget the Kurds when there was a strategic choice between them and the Turks.

Russia, however, does not come out of this deal as badly as the US. Russia did not abandon allies it trained, armed, and deployed to do virtually all the ground fighting against Daesh’s pseudo-caliphate in Syria.  Trump took his decision to abandon the Kurds against the advice of the Pentagon and civilian aides. The ratio of six US deaths — four at a cafe in the town of Manbij and two in battle — to 11,000 mainly Kurdish SDF fatalities in combat tells the whole story.

To make matters worse, having seized a chunk of northern Syria, Turkey is not satisfied. Its forces have violated the agreed ceasefire in a bid to capture more territory. Meanwhile, Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu charged the US and Russia of failing to fulfill their commitment to clear Kurdish fighters from the border area and threatened further military action if they were not expelled.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkey would carry on with military operations. “Notably, in Syria and northern Iraq, our fight will continue until all terror threats towards our country end and the last terrorists neutralised.” While claiming to be engaged in an anti-terrorist campaign, Erdogan is in fact determined to occupy a wide belt of Syrian territory where he plans to deport hundreds of thousands of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees who have become a burden to Turkey and are unpopular with Erdogan’s constituents.

The actions of both Trump and Erdogan in northern Syria are about them and not in their countries’ interests. Both men are currently facing major challenges: Trump, impeachment in the Democrat controlled US House of Representatives and, perhaps, trial in the Republican-held Senate; Erdogan, erosion of his personal support with his largely conservative, devout voters due to corruption and his cult of personality.

Trump has also successfully cultivated a cult of personality by pitting himself against the urbanite, educated Democratic and moderate Republic elites. He hopes this will protect him from the House Intelligence committee’s investigation into grounds for impeachment over his demand that he will free up military aid and greet Ukraine’s new president in the White House if it meets two conditions.

It must provide evidence that Trump’s possible Democratic challenger in next year’s election, Joe Biden and his son Hunter, were involved in corruption in that country and that Kiev tried to influence the 2016 US election in favour of Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton. Neither happened. Trump is relying on fantasies to gain an advantage over Biden or any other opponent. Trump has jeopardised not only the US relationship with Ukraine but also the latter’s very existence as it is currently involved in a war with Russia which did interfere in the election that put Trump in office.

Trump’s treatment of Kiev is highly destructive because it could leave Ukraine exposed to Russian pressure.  His abandonment of the Syrian Kurds is no less dangerous. Daesh is already taking advantage of their redeployment to the Turkish front to revive, reconstitute units, and broadcast its message around the globe.  Trump advertises his decision on US troop withdrawal from Syria as honouring his campaign promise to potential voters to end US prosecution of “endless wars” in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.  This move should be added to his Ukraine dirty dealings on the list of his impeachable offensives. For a second time, he jeopardised US national interests in order to please his “base” of voters whose ignorance of and lack of attention to foreign affairs could precipitate terrorist attacks anywhere and prolong conflict.

A third Trump policy which puts at risk US interests in this region will not be put on the list of impeachable offenses. This is his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and shift of the US embassy from Tel Aviv, cancellation of all US funding to the Palestinians, proclamation that Israeli settlements are not illegitimate and recognition of the Syrian Golan Heights as Israeli territory. These actions give a green light to expansionist rulers of Russia, Turkey, and other countries to commit aggression against their neighbours.

Trump’s legacy has horrendous implications well before his first term in office has expired.