Macron’s domestic woes shine through in snap poll speculation

Ania Nussbaum, Tribune News Service

The vehement denial by French President Emmanuel Macron’s office of a report that he may resign to trigger an early election has done little to quell that rumour.

The reason: There may some logic to such a move.

The report in Le Figaro newspaper on Thursday said Macron had raised the possibility in a call with London-based donors. The Elysee palace denied it, saying the president was neither on such a call nor has he entertained such an idea — the government spokeswoman told France Info radio Macron’s resignation would be “bizarre.” Still, it set the chattering classes abuzz, with political radio and television programs talking of little else.

What lends the rumour credence is the fact that Macron is in a tight spot. While the pandemic pressed the pause button on all the thorny issues he was dealing with — from the Yellow Vest protests to the highly contentious pension reforms — they are all set to resurface. The country’s early response to the coronavirus was deemed to be less than exemplary, and the lockdown-induced contraction of the economy and potential mass job losses will mean some difficult conversations. On the defensive, a new mandate might just be the thing Macron needs.

“An election could be a way to mark a reorientation in Macron’s mandate, and to seek renewed legitimacy by returning to the electorate,” Jean Garrigues, a historian at Orleans University said. “But this would be a risky move, necessary only if you hit rock bottom. That’s not the case for Macron.” Perhaps not. But Macron has already started talking about reinventing himself and acknowledged flaws in his government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis. On Sunday, the 42-year-old president will address the nation, an exercise aimed at taking stock of the government’s crisis-management during the pandemic, according to an official close to him.

His speech will come as the number of coronavirus cases in the country dwindles sharply and the end to the lockdown starts taking hold, adding pre-virus problems to the pandemic-related issues he’ll have deal with. The president has been crafting the “next steps” of his presidency — an official at the Elysee said. That will mean going back to the drawing board on his flagship pension reform, weighing what parts will have to be scrapped.

One of the key new reforms will involve major investments in hospitals, the president has said. That came after the health system was found wanting in dealing with the pandemic.

Granted, France has had successes in its fight against the virus. While close to 30,000 people died, many deaths were avoided thanks to the resilience of the public health system and the swift transfer of patients via high-speed TGV trains. The state moved quickly to support those who could have fallen into poverty, possibly avoiding an uglier recession.

Still, it’s Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, not Macron, who is getting credit for those measures.

Macron has the backing of 33% of French voters, according to the pollster Elabe, down from 39% in April. By contrast, the approval rating for Philippe jumped 5 points to 39%, the highest since December 2017.

Garrigues points out that Macron isn’t that much more unpopular than his predecessors Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy at the same moment of their mandates — neither of them managed to win re-election and Hollande didn’t even try. The difference this time around is that Macron has no credible adversary (and there would be no time for one to emerge before a snap election) and a strong majority in parliament.

“The situation isn’t that bad for Emmanuel Macron,” Garrigues said. “The question is: What concrete moves will he choose to reshape the rest of his mandate?”