Normalcy in near future, a distant possibility

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of billions across the globe and a return to normal functioning in the near future seems a distant possibility.

COVID-19 cases worldwide have already surpassed 15 million, and nearly 620,000 deaths have been recorded.

Most cases, or 10 million, were in just 10 countries, with the United States, Brazil and India accounting for nearly half. The US has surpassed the milestone of four million infections. However, this does not leave any room for complacency in places that are showing lower number of cases.

The fact that the General Debate of the General Assembly, traditionally the most high-profile UN event of the year, will be a slimmed-down affair this September, with world leaders staying away from New York, and contributing set-piece speeches via video link, indicates the situation is far from normal.

The new virtual format is largely due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic with many countries continuing to grapple with the health, social and economic fallout from the crisis.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has rightly urged people everywhere to play a part in preventing further spread of the disease, warning that there will be no return to “the old normal”.

While all Arab states are facing difficulties in responding to COVID-19, the pandemic can also provide an opportunity to resolve long-standing conflicts and address structural weaknesses across the region, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres points out.

The COVID-19 pandemic has indeed exposed fault lines, fissures and fragilities in societies and economies around the world – and the Arab region is no exception.

‘The Impact of COVID-19 on the Arab Region: An Opportunity to Build Back Better’ is the latest UN policy initiative to help countries deal with the pandemic, providing ideas for governments on how to address the consequences of the crisis.

Arab nations – which have a collective population of more than 430 million – have seen a sharp drop in oil revenues, remittances and tourism.

The regional economy is expected to contract by over five per cent, amounting to an overall loss of $152 billion. As a result, a quarter of the population might end up in poverty.

In a region already rife with tensions and inequalities, this will have profound consequences on political and social stability, as the UN chief cautions.

Years of conflict and social unrest have reversed progress in human development, and some communities will be hit hard by the pandemic. They include women, refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs).

The Arab region already has the world’s largest gender gap, and the UN fears women could lose around 700,000 jobs, particularly in the informal sector where they comprise more than 60 per cent of the workforce.

Despite the challenges, COVID-19 has offered an opportunity to effect change in the Arab region and it could be a moment for resolving long-standing conflicts and addressing structural weaknesses.

Guterres has proposed four sets of priorities to guide responses, with the immediate focus on slowing spread of the disease, ending conflict, and supporting the most vulnerable people.

That means prioritising life-saving health care to COVID-19 victims, respecting the call for a global ceasefire; ensuring humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable — including refugees, displaced and host communities; providing emergency support to individuals and households; and taking steps to relieve debt, promote trade and expand relief — for example, through a regional solidarity fund.

The proposals do seem timely and wise.