N.Korea’s missile tests, sounding war drums

Every now and then North Korea keeps drumming war beats to the West.

North Korea on Thursday test-fired its first ballistic missiles since President Joe Biden took office. The move is designed to show off its military capabilities and increase pressure on Washington while nuclear negotiations remain stalled.

This caused ripples of anxiety in the region. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the launches threaten “peace and safety in Japan and the region.”

South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, after meeting his Russian counterpart in Seoul, expressed “deep concern.”

North Korea has a history of provoking new US administrations with missile launches. The idea is to compel the Americans back to the negotiating table.

Still, Thursday’s launches seemed to be a calculated provocation compared to the nuclear and intercontinental missile tests in 2017 that inspired war fears before the North shifted towards diplomacy with the Trump administration in 2018.

Analysts say that the North would gradually dial up its weapons displays to increase its bargaining power as it angles to get back into stalled talks aimed at leveraging nuclear weapons for badly needed economic benefits.

North Korea has not responded to behind-the-scenes diplomatic outreach since mid-February by President Joe Biden’s administration, including to Pyongyang’s mission to the United Nations, a senior Biden administration official told Reuters. The disclosure of the so-far unsuccessful US outreach, which has not been previously reported, raises questions about how Biden will address mounting tensions with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

The Biden administration has so far been cautious in publicly describing its approach to North Korea. His predecessor Donald Trump’s efforts failed to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. The official said it appeared there had been no active dialogue between the United States and North Korea for more than a year, including at the end of Trump’s administration, “despite multiple attempts during that time by the United States to engage.”

The US official declined to speculate about how the silence from Pyongyang would impact the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review, which was expected to be completed in the coming weeks.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held out the possibility of additional sanctions, in coordination with allies, to press North Korea to denuclearise. Sanctions have so far failed to convince Kim to give up his aggressive moves on the missile front.

It’s unclear how the Biden administration would respond before it completes its policy review on North Korea in the coming weeks. Trump has been accused of giving North Korea room to advance its weaponry by repeatedly dismissing its short-range missile tests despite the threat they posed to South Korea and Japan.

If Biden takes a different approach by imposing additional sanctions over short-range missile launches, the North may use it as an excuse for more provocative tests, including those involving submarine-launched ballistic missile systems.

Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister last week roundly slammed the United States over its latest round of combined military exercises with South Korea that ended earlier this month, describing the drills as an invasion rehearsal and warned Washington to “refrain from causing a stink” if it wants to “sleep in peace” for the next four years. South Korea’s Defence Ministry said the North’s short-range tests on Sunday were its first missile firings since April 2020. Biden played down those launches, telling reporters, “There’s no new wrinkle in what they did.”

It remains to be seen whether the US will take the North Korean provocation on the chin, and tone down the pitch on the North’s nuclear manoeuvres. Or call Kim’s bluff and ramp up the belligerent cry.