Indian cities high on environmental risk index

A report by research firm Verisk Maplecroft states that of the 100 most vulnerable cities to environmental risks, 43 are in India.

According to the first instalment of their Cities@Risk series, which ranks the world’s 576 largest urban centres on their exposure to a range of environmental and climate-related threats, 99 of the world’s 100 riskiest cities are in Asia, including 37 in China and 43 in India.

Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, topped the list of combined risk based on all nine factors analyzed by Verisk Maplecroft. India is home to 13 of the 20 riskiest cities in the world, a result of its extreme levels of air and water pollution.

Globally, as reported by Bloomberg, around 1.5 billion people dwell in 414 cities worldwide that are at high risk from natural hazards, pollution, physical impacts of climate change, water shortages, and extreme heat, according to the report.

China’s flood-prone Guangzhou and Dongguan topped the list of cities facing threats from natural hazards, followed by Japan’s Osaka and Tokyo for being vulnerable to earthquakes and typhoons. Lima is the only city outside Asia among the top 100 most at-risk cities overall. African cities face some of the worst risks from climate change and have the least ability to mitigate impacts. Glasgow was ranked the safest among the 576 cities examined for this factor.

Verisk’s website snapshot states that companies operating and investing in Asian cities are going to face an increasingly stiff test to their resilience. With rising emissions driving weather-related risk and populations growing in many cities across the developing world, the risks to citizens, real assets, and commercial operations are only going to rise.

The global index draws nine risk indices to evaluate the liveability, investment potential and operational risk landscape of cities with a population over 1 million. India has 13 of the world’s 20 highest risk locations. The capital, Delhi, is rated as the second highest risk city globally and is followed by the likes of Chennai (3rd), Agra (6th) and Kanpur (10th). Close behind are Jaipur (22nd), Lucknow (24th), Bengaluru (25th) and Mumbai (27th).

Pollution is the main threat to the health of the country’s huge urban populations, with Indian cities making up 19 of the 20 most at risk in our Air Quality Index. Noxious air caused almost one in five deaths in India in 2019, resulting in economic losses of $36 billion; meanwhile, water pollution is responsible for almost $9 billion in annual health costs and causes 400,000 deaths each year.

Outside Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has the largest proportion of cities categorized as high risk. Extreme water stress and natural hazards means populous cities dominate the region’s worst-performing urban areas. And while Lima is the most at-risk city in the Americas – and the only non-Asian city in the top 100 – diverse threats in Mexico City, Santiago and Los Angeles keep them in the race. Meanwhile, the most at-risk cities in Europe score similar to those in Africa – but face very different threats.

Verisk’s snapshot adds that focusing on air and water pollution gives a more even spread of risk; at least outside Asia, which again is home to the highest risk cities. The ‘airpocalypse’ in urban areas across China and India is well documented, but high levels of water pollution go more under the radar. Together, China and India account for 286 million of the 336 million people living in cities at extreme risk for pollution; include high-risk cities and their total rises to 642 million.

Though companies and investors focussing on assets such as real estate cannot just pick up and relocate to a ‘safer’ city, the report shows no cities are entirely risk free. Organisations must conduct granular assessments of environmental risk so they can overcome disruptions.

The picture is different about the impact of natural hazards and the exposure of economies, populations and transport infrastructure. Asia is still most at risk, but the cities are different. Topping the list are flood-prone Guangzhou and Dongguan, followed by Osaka, Tokyo and Shenzhen. African cities’ low-risk scores stand out. Flooding and seismic risks are the key threats to Europe’s higher risk cities, with a concentration of high-value assets and infrastructure, so also major centres in Asia and the Americas. Major cities in North America, Europe, China and Asia Pacific are also better placed to respond to and recover from natural disasters than in Africa, MENA, Latin America or much of Asia.