Delta variant adds urgency to COVID response

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Tribune News Service

Over the weekend, Sydney was put under a mandatory stay-at-home order for two weeks in response to the risk posed by the Delta variant of COVID-19. This came as a surprise to many, especially those who rightly view Australia as having been among the best in managing COVID-19, with its very low infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

Australia was not the only recent COVID-19 surprise in advanced countries. Israel, long a vaccination leader, reimposed an indoor-mask requirement last Friday. Once again, the catalyst was the Delta variant. Then there was the UK, which, other than India, has been battling longest against Delta. According to government reports, the number of Delta infections rose 46% in just one week. Indeed, whether it is the evidence from there or the reactions of Australia and Israel, four issues should be front and centre for many more countries, including the US, which need to realize that new COVID-19 risks are likely  and do not respect borders.

The ability of the Delta variant to spread fast and deep has surprised many. It is the most infectious variant so far, especially among the non-vaccinated segments of the population. But it also hits the vaccinated, including the doubled-jabbed who, according to UK data, made up as much as 20% of those infected with Delta.

Fortunately, the health consequences of the Delta variant in advanced countries appear less severe so far. This is due in part to a better understanding of COVID-19 some 18 months into the pandemic. But most important is vaccination: While it has not totally broken the link between infections on the one hand and hospitalisations and deaths on the other, it has significantly weakened it. So far, a lot fewer of those testing positive have ended up in hospital or worse because they were vaccinated. Uncertainty remains, however, about the risks of “long COVID” effects.

Government policy reactions have varied significantly, and not just because of different vaccination rates. Important behavioural judgments appear to be in play as well as issues about policy acceptance and effectiveness.

Sydney, with a relatively low vaccination rate, took strong measures despite a very low absolute number of infections. Israel and the UK have high vaccination rates but have differed in their reactions, with Israel tightening guidelines but the UK maintaining its reopening narrative. (England did delay by a month the final stage of the reopening road map, with similar actions by Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales; importantly, it has also stepped up in the already-impressive vaccination effort there, with pop-up vaccination centers that don’t require a reservation appearing nationwide.)

As of now, the incremental economic damage associated with the Delta variant in advanced countries appears limited, especially when compared with India, where it originated and has been causing widespread human tragedies.

Though there are recent examples around the world of significant disruptions because of new waves of COVID-19 (Bangladesh being this weekend’s most striking example), there is little to suggest as of now that Delta in itself is particularly damaging economically and financially in the advanced world. While it is still early when it comes to the potential global spread, and it will spread unfortunately, many countries have become much better at managing through these waves.

No matter how the four factors evolve, it is hard to deny two general but important conclusions.

First, Delta is yet another illustration that the terrible COVID-19 pandemic will not end suddenly. Instead, the world will need to continue to adapt to the reality of living with an endemic for a while — that is, a virus that is proving hard to fully eradicate. With improved private and public health practices and guidelines, living in this age of an endemic virus can be a lot less threatening to lives and livelihoods.

The only way to ensure well-being is to go back to the mantra that “no one is safe until everyone is safe.” Further vigilance in advanced countries needs to be accompanied with greater assistance to poorer and less-well-organized countries to improve everyone’s durable protection against COVID-19.