Expect regression

The re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan will change the geopolitical paradigms and ecosystem in Asia and Middle East. Afghanistan will now always be in the news as the emerging hotspot of repression in the world, along with countries like North Korea, Belarus, etc. (‘I can’t live under them, I would rather be dead’, Aug. 21, Gulf Today).

The Taliban will in all likelihood rule the country imperiously without any elections or public sanction. Despite some tentative reassurances, women may not be permitted to study or work. Erstwhile government and army members could be targeted in vengeance. Religious indoctrination will be the norm. Free thinking will be penalised.

Afghanistan will continue to be the playground of superpowers. The US, Britain and Russia have already burnt their fingers, in dealing with the Taliban in the past. So, they will prefer to remain in the shadows and try to manoeuvre events, rather than engage directly or militarily. China could step into the new vacuum. The Taliban could be mesmerised by Chinese promises to strengthen the infrastructure in Afghanistan. The country needs rail links, roads, bridges, airports, electricity and military. China with its economic aggrandisement agenda may pamper the Taliban with these projects or toys. However, knowing the Taliban, they will accept all the infrastructure gifts, but not tolerate any ideological intervention.

Pakistan seems gleeful with the reinstatement of the Taliban. This is unfortunate. Pakistan should be focussing on its own economic agenda of developing the country and enriching its citizens. Economic development should be the single-minded focus of Pakistan. India is rightly concerned with the new developments in the region. In the past, Afghanistan under the Taliban had become a safe haven for violent and anti-Western movements like Al Qaeda, etc. Large number of “Mujahideen” (guerrilla freedom fighters), may move again from Afghanistan to the borders of India, near Kashmir, to create new thorns. This could impact India’s development agenda. The comparison of the American walk-out from Afghanistan with Vietnam in 1975, is superfluous. When America left Vietnam, the Viet Cong led by Ho Chi Minh, swiftly dominated the entire country. However, now after 30 years, Vietnam is an emerging economic power. The Vietnamese put their past agony, hurt and pain behind them to build a new future. Now, Vietnam exports the finest garments and electronics components. Vietnamese are industrious and serious. No such hope exists in Afghanistan. With the Taliban in power, expect regression, not progress. The guns will not be replaced by laptops.

Rajendra Aneja
Mumbai, India