The Year in Review: Confessions of an Incurable Optimist

Doyle McManus, Tribune News Service

Twelve months ago, Americans could indulge in optimism. For a bright, shining moment, 2021 promised to be a year of recovery.

The first vaccines for COVID-19 were going into health workers’ arms. The economy was climbing out of recession. And after a bruising campaign, a new president promised a return to calm.

I shared the high hopes. “Joe Biden ... is 78 years old, and he has been a politician for more than 50 years. Those qualifications may be his hidden superpowers,” I wrote. “Improbable as it sounds, this politician of modest talents and limited eloquence may have exactly the gifts he needs to succeed.”

What could go wrong? Plenty. The pandemic didn’t end. The economy boomed, but inflation surged. And while Biden restored a dose of normality to politics, voters didn’t feel it. By the end of the year, his approval rating dropped to 43%, the worst first-year report card for any recent president except, of course, Donald Trump.

We in the media are often accused of focusing on bad news. In 2021, I erred in the other direction: I was too optimistic.

This year-end column is my annual exercise in humility — a lookback at what I got wrong.

Let’s start with the most disruptive problem of the year, the pandemic. A year ago, vaccines looked like a good bet to bring COVID-19 under control.

Too many people were hesitating to get the shot — but no worries, I wrote: Governors were rolling out inducements including prizes to persuade them. “It turns out that what really motivates people is the chance to strike it rich,” I wrote.

Wrong. I didn’t expect that roughly 15% of adults, mostly white Republicans, would persist in refusing vaccination. Their resistance makes it harder for all of us to reach herd immunity — the point at which the virus stops spreading.

That’s one of several reasons Biden’s first year has been a disappointment: the pandemic is a long way from over.

A second reason is the economy’s fitful recovery. Corporate profits are up, unemployment is down, but prices are rising — and that affects everyone, not just those who land new jobs.

I underestimated the impact inflation would have on Biden’s standing and ability to move legislation through Congress. Optimist that I am, I looked for signs of progress.

In July, I wrote that the president had “something to celebrate”: Even Joe Manchin III, the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia, sounded ready to vote for a big social spending bill.

Last week, Manchin said he’s not a yes. Meanwhile, the bipartisanship Biden promised has remained elusive. In November, Congress passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, but that was a rare exception in a bitterly polarized year.

Even then, Trump denounced the 19 GOP senators and 13 House members who supported the bill and threatened to run them out of office.

A year ago, I wrote that my New Year’s resolution was to ignore the former president’s eruptions. That proved not only impossible but also unwise. Trump is still the dominant figure in his party and the odds-on favourite for its 2024 presidential nomination.

In January, I dismissed the notion that Republicans in Congress might try to overturn the results of an election as mere bluster, a “Potemkin coup.” It was a clever phrase, but wrong: Trump’s attempt to incite a constitutional crisis was — and remains — deadly serious. I underrated his malevolent staying power. Farther afield, amid terrifying news about extreme weather, I even found reasons for optimism on climate change.

“As improbable as it seems, there are glimmers of hope on the horizon,” I wrote as world leaders gathered for a summit. “Denialism, the dismissal of climate change as bogus, is dying. ... (Voters) want their politicians to act.”