America no longer seen as a power for good

The only way to end Russia’s war on Ukraine is to adopt the Lebanese slogan, “No victor, no vanquished.” This means neither side should celebrate victory and both should accept compromises, however painful. Furthermore, the West, led by the Biden administration, should stop its incessant anti-Russia propaganda campaign which has, at least in part, fuelled and prolonged this conflict.

This has, so far, reached a stalemate. Neither side can win. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine and Ukraine cannot rout the Russian army which is resorting to blasting Ukrainian cities and towns with the aim of forcing Kyiv to capitulate to Moscow’s demands. Meanwhile, virtual negotiations between representatives of the two sides continue. Shooting while talking is standard practice in war and is aimed at securing concessions in a peace deal.

Since Ukraine is the party being bombed and shelled, it is the weaker party despite the effective resistance it has mounted to contain the Russian army’s advance, the high morale of the Ukrainian people, losses among Russian troops and the West’s massive support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for “meaningful and fair” peace talks.

He has no choice. Kyiv is under pressure to settle by the 10 million Ukrainians, nearly one-quarter of the population, who have been driven from their homes, including 3.2 million who have fled the country and 12 million trapped in Russian assaulted enclaves.

There would have been far more fleeing the country if men between the ages of 18-60 had been allowed to leave along with women and children. Many of the men left behind have been given weapons and a scratch course in their use but they are not professional soldiers but the Ukrainian version of the “Dads’ Army,” raised on the home-front by Britain during World War II.

Urban Ukrainians driven by Russian shelling and bombing to take shelter in basements and underground train stations in cities and towns and hapless Ukrainians trapped in their homes by Russian military occupation seek an urgent end to the conflict. Farmers who have left their fields for the field of battle must plant their crops. Shopkeepers, garage mechanics, and other citizen soldiers must return to work or Ukraine’s economy will collapse.

In addition to the pressure exerted by crippling Western sanctions, Russia is compelled to settle due to the reported high death toll among its troops as well as large numbers of wounded returning home. Mother Russia is undamaged and nationalism is flaring so Moscow cannot appear to lose.

In the peace talks, Russia has, reportedly, won concessions which should have been granted before President Vladimir Putin sent his troops into Ukraine. According to an aide to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who — ironically, as he occupies northern Cyprus — has offered himself as a mediator, Putin wants Ukraine to accept neutrality and drop its bid to join Nato.

While Zelensky has apparently conceded these points, he has observed that Nato does not want Ukraine as a member in any case. Ukraine would have to demilitarise to the point it could not threaten Russia, the Russian language (which is spoken by a majority of Ukrainians) would be protected, and Ukraine’s neo-Nazis would have to be curbed. Once these items are agreed, Putin has said he and Zelensky would have to meet and reach a deal on the status of the secessionist parts of the Donbas area in the east which have already declared independence from Ukraine and on the disposition of Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia.

Since these areas are inhabited by Russians, Putin cannot be expected to concede. He will be obliged to withdraw his troops from the rest of Ukraine while Nato powers will have to provide that country with security guarantees.

Zelensky could find it difficult to cede the Donbas area and Crimea. He could expect fierce and even armed opposition from right-wingers and neo-Nazis who do exist although the West is in denial. Ukrainian national unity would suffer. The neo-Nazi far-right Azov regiment, estimated at 900 men, is a potent threat particularly since it has been integrated into the country’s national guard and has helped train civilians in the use of weaponry since the war began. The ultra-nationalist Svodoba, the All Ukrainian Union, “Freedom,” which played a key role in the 2014 “revolution” that toppled a pro-Russian president, could be expected to gain adherents during this conflict.

However, failing to reach a deal would mean the Russian military would continue to pound Ukraine’s cities, towns and villages and expand border enclaves in the south-east, north-east and north. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine but it can do a great deal of damage. This is why Zelenksy has to call a halt as soon as possible.

It is fortunate that the Western campaign against Russia has not won acceptance by countries in this region, Africa, Latin America, and in China and India. The latter two, the world’s most populous countries, have good relations with Russia and have made it clear they will maintain these ties. South Africa, which has refused to condemn Russia and rejected sanctions, is also a neutrality trendsetter.

All these countries could have a positive role to play in mopping up on the global politico-economic fall-out once the guns fall silent. Their first job would be exerting pressure on the US and Europe to lift punitive sanctions imposed on Russia. The US is likely to resist as it has less exposure than Europe to damage from such measures, but Germany, France and other European countries could urge an early end to sanctions, perhaps with the possibility of reimposing them if Russia does not abide by the end of conflict deal it reaches with Ukraine.

The attempt by US President Joe Biden to bully Chinese leader Xi Jinping into backing the US-driven sanctions and boycott of Russia has failed despite the threat of secondary sanctions if Beijing provides military or economic aid to Russia. China responded to Biden by rejecting sanctions as such measures would harm the Russian population. The Chinese also said heavy-handed sanctions could “trigger serious crises in the global economy, trade, finance, energy, food, industrial chain and supply chain, making the already difficult world economy even worse and causing irreparable losses.”

The Biden administration has also tried and failed to bully the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to override the rejection of OPEC+ not to raise oil exports to compensate for cuts in Russian crude and other petroleum exports. And, Washington has criticised His Highness Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, and His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, for hosting pro-Russian Syrian President Bashar Al Assad during this first visit to the Arab world since unrest erupted in his country in March 2011.

Biden has not accepted that the US cannot dominate a unipolar world. While the US controls the flow of dollars, bank transfers, and key financial instruments, targeted countries have found means to evade US sanctions. Washington is no longer seen as a power for good. While it continues to claim it supports the rule of law on the international scene and argue that it is motivated by “values,” this has never been true. Furthermore, this region more than any other — except, maybe Latin America — has suffered from US interventions, coups, aggression, deception, and lack of “values.” This is why it is necessary to count on Russia, China, and India to counter Washington’s efforts to assert its destructive influence outside the boundaries of the US.