Rising bread, fuel prices push Sudan to the brink

Bread has become unaffordable for many people in Sudan, and so has the making of bread. Mohammed now has to spend 27,000 Sudanese pounds if he were to but bread for a family of six in a month, which is nearly the whole of his salary of 30,000 Sudanese pounds, equivalent to $50. He is not sure whether he can send his children to school if here were to buy bread.

The economic situation deteriorated after last October’s coup by army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the United States, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund suspending aid to the country. Exports had declined since then, foreign currency shortages have showed up, and local banks are unable to carry out any transactions with their counterparts in the US and in the West.

Sudan had been experiencing economic difficulties, first during the long dictatorship of Omar Bashir, who was ousted from power in 2019. There was an understanding between the military and civilian groups about the timetable to hold elections. But this received a setback because of the army coup in October. There were protests against Bashir because

of high prices of bread. Essameddine Okasha of the bakers association in Khartoum admitted that the bread prices were beyond the reach of the common people. He says it is due to increase in operational costs. One of the reasons for the sudden increases in bread prices is the disruption of supplies of wheat from Russia and Ukraine now embroiled in a war, which has entered the 26th day.

There have been hikes in fuel prices too, mainly due to the fact that subsidies have been taken away as part of the transition to a democratic system. Petrol at the pump jumped to 672 Sudanese pounds ($1.50) per litre from 320 Sudanese pounds before the October coup. Local business owners suspended operations because of the rising costs. A food factory owner in North Khartoum said he laid off 300 women employees, who were breadwinners of their families because he could not keep up with electricity and production input prices.

Economist Mohammed Al-Nayer says that the withdrawal of international aid has crippled the economy. “The absence of international aid and loans in the 2022 budget is having a negative effect. Taxes now constitute 58 per cent of the budget sharply increasing prices and pushing the country into recession.” The inflation in February is reckoned to be at 258 per cent, and Nayer thinks it will not be possible for the government to bring down inflation, and it could even possibly touch 500 per cent.

It appears that the Western policy of cutting off aid and imposing sanctions against countries in Africa where coups disrupt democracy which in turn goes through turmoil because of ethnic and factional rivalries is putting the people of these countries to greater trouble, and even pushing them into poverty. It would indeed be ideal if democracy is sustained in African countries, but when the West chooses to punish these countries for deviating from democratic norms, more than the dictators and army generals, it is the ordinary people who pay the heavy price as can be seen in the situation in Sudan.  A better method than cutting off aid and imposing sanctions has to be found to sustain democracy in poor and developing countries. In an earlier era, the US and other Western countries supported dictatorships as long as they did not adopt communism. But after the end of the Cold War, West was not any more interested in supporting military juntas. But democracy continues to face rough weather in these countries because the generals and other dictators had only made it more difficult for democracy to put down roots.