War moves from west to east in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Ukraine will fight for every metre of its territory, even as Russia-recognised republic Donetsk leader Denis Pushilin said they were preparing for a fresh offensive and added, “We are well aware that the longer it takes us to liberate our territory, those settlements that are under control of Ukraine, the more victims and destruction there will be.”

 Zelensky has expressed the determination to fight over Donbas, the region that Russia is claiming. So, the nature of the war alters. From defending its capital Kyiv and other cities, Zelensky is preparing to launch a fresh offensive in the Donbas region in the east. He is saying in effect that he will not allow Ukraine to be divided, and Russian claims in the east of Ukraine will be contested. The east of Ukraine then becomes the main theatre of war. And Zelensky is asking for more weapons from the West to keep the war against Russia and its supporters in the east on. Surprisingly, there is no reference to Crimea, which Russia had taken over in 2014 and incorporated in Russia.

Zelensky wants to keep the remaining part of Ukraine intact, and this includes the Donbas region. There are Russian-speaking Ukrainian separatists in the region who are supported by Moscow. The glimmer of hope for peace between Ukraine and Russia looks so much more difficult with Zelensky’s resolve to pursue the war against Russia in the eastern parts of the country. Zelensky believes that Ukrainian forces have succeeded in halting the Russian march into Ukraine which had begun on February 24, and he wants to push out the Russian troops and Russia-supported separatists in the east.  So far, it is the Ukrainian separatists who were fighting the war in the east with the support of Russian arms, and Russia is likely to continue this proxy war. It is going to gradually withdraw its troops from northern Ukraine because it has not been able to capture any of the big urban centres, including Mariupol, which is part of the Donbas region.

Those who have been trying to make sense of the Ukraine-Russia war have to reassess their stance once again. Since February 24, Ukraine was attacked by Russia without any provocation. Though Russia has wrought immense damage on the Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv and Lviv and Kharkiv, it has not been able to capture any of them. The fight over Mariupol takes the fight into the separatists-dominated eastern region of Donbas. Ukraine is taking the war to the Russian and separatist strongholds in Ukraine. Zelensky is right to call this the turning point in the war.

Zelensky will then be waging a war not just against Russia but also the Russia-aided Ukrainian separatists. It makes the war a more complicated affair than it is now, where the narrative is on how a hapless Ukraine has been attacked by a militarily stronger Russia, and where Ukraine is the victim and Russia is the aggressor.

It is a simple black-and-white story, a fight between the moral principles of what is right and good, that is Ukraine, and what is wrong and evil. The element of Ukrainian separatists makes it a different kind of confrontation and conflict. The talks that were held between the Russians and the Ukrainians in Istanbul on Tuesday, where the Russians promised to wind down the war in the north, takes on a different meaning.

The Russians now seem to realise that there is more to be gained from supporting the Ukrainian separatists in the Donbas region. It is in a manner of speaking, advantage Zelensky, advantage Ukraine.