To the wire

French voters go to the polls Sunday to elect their president at a time of deep divisions within the country.  Incumbent centrist Emmanuel Macron, 44, remains the favourite with recent polls showing he is about ten points above his rival ultra-rightist Marine Le Pen, 53. If he wins in the second round, he will be the first president to secure re-election in 20 years.

During the April 10th first round when 12 candidates ran, Macron took 28 per cent of the vote, Le Pen 23 per cent and the eliminated leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon secured 22 per cent, making him a potential king maker. The rest of the field did not reach double digits in percentages.

Although recent polls show Marcon leading by 56-55.5 per cent to Le Pen’s 44-44.5 per cent, there is concern that supporters, who feel he failed the, and leftists could abstain from voting while Le Pen’s voters could flock to the polls.

While Melenchon told his supporters, “We must not give a single vote to Mrs. Le Pen,” he did not express outright support for Macron. This could be a serious omission if his voters do not go to the polls.  

During the 2017 contest when Macron stood, once again, against Le Pen, he won by 66 per cent as compared to her 34 per cent. When he was inaugurated on May 14t of that year, Macron, 39, became the youngest president in French history, the youngest head of state since Napoleon, and his party En Marche won a substantial majority in the June parliamentary election.

In an effort to stir interest in the contest and encourage anti-Le Pen voters to cast their ballots, former President Nicolas Sarkozy, a right-winger, gave his support to Macron, citing his experience in handling the “grave international crisis” in Ukraine. Sarkozy also called for unity and lauded Macron’s efforts to provide support for stressed workers.

No friend of Macron, Francois Hollande, a socialist, also declared that supporting him was the best way to “ensure Le Pen does not win.” He told French television, “I know that in an election of this importance, what is key is France, its cohesion, its European future and its independence. This is why I call on the French to vote for Emmanuel Macron.”

Hollande summed up the situation perfectly. A win for Le Pen could fragment France, pitting the extreme right which she represents against Marcon centrists and leftists. Critics warn she would exploit social and political divisions within France and undermine the European Union and weaken the post-Ukraine war remnants of international order.

Le Pen leads the National Rally, a somewhat reformed and moderated version of the National Front which her father Jean-Marie Le Pen founded and headed from 1972-2011, when she took over its management. He remained honorary president until 2015, when she removed him and expelled him from the party due to his racism and xenophobia. The party was renamed the National Rally in 2018.

She is a Euro-sceptic who favours a loose “confederation” of European countries rather than a supra-national, federal European Union (EU). She argues French law should take precedence over EU law, particularly on migration and citizenship, and calls for reimposition of border controls on imports and people. She would reduce France’s contribution to the EU budget and cut taxes on essential goods and fuel, violating EU market regulations. While eschewing racism and discrimination, she rejects illegal immigration and would halt legal immigration. EU members Poland and Hungary — which are already in breach of bloc laws and practices — could be encouraged to follow her example if she gets away with making the changes she proposes.

Le Pen believes in a “multipolar world” and criticises France’s acceptance of the US lead in international affairs. Le Pen would withdraw from Nato’s command but remain in the alliance. She argues that the World Trade Organisation, World Bank and International Monetary Fund are obsolete and favours a new trade organisation based on protectionism rather than free trade and globalisation. On the Palestinian issue, she opposes Israeli colonisation and the emigration of French Jews to Israel. Like Macron, she upholds France’s strong secular character but on most other issues the two diverge dramatically.

Macron is a Europhile who seeks to strengthen the EU and would like France to secure the leadership of the bloc now that Britain is out and Angela Merkel is no longer German chancellor. He offers continuity and completion of popular programmes initiated in his first five-year term.

Since taking office, he has honoured many of his campaign pledges, despite covid and, lately, the disruptive war in Ukraine. He reduced unemployment and made the French economy more competitive. But he was too conservative and authoritarian for many.

While promising a “new style of politics,” he failed to appeal to the grassroots and achieved his objectives by imposing reforms top-down. This has prompted accusations that Macron is “arrogant,” a charge he has had to disprove during the brief campaign, his efforts cut short by his efforts to avert and curtail the Ukraine war.

He has also neglected the middle class and ignored politically critical pockets of poverty, like the old port of Marseille, a 2017 Macron stronghold, turning its disappointed inhabitants against him. He alienated French Muslims by cracking-down on independent mosques and introducing tough security measures which, they argue, have targeted them and boosted Islamophobia.

In this campaign, his orientation is “neither left, nor right.” To the left, he promises to increase amounts paid to pensioners, recruit new health professionals, promote gender equality, and tackle harassment in schools. To the right, he pledges tax cuts for companies, additional police officers and judges, and raising the retirement age from 62-65 to manage the pension scheme’s high level of debt.

Le Pen portrayed herself as an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin before the Ukraine war, but she has had to renounce that tie. While Macron did not project himself as Putin’s enemy, the French president did his utmost to persuade him not to invade Ukraine. Instead, Macron urged Putin to negotiate a deal which could end the troop build-up on Ukraine’s borders and put an end to Russia’s fear of encirclement by Nato. Unfortunately, Macron failed as peacemaker. US

President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went on the warpath, dragged the West along this deadly and destructive route and Putin invaded.

Photo: TNS