Cold War game: US-Russia prisoner swap

Quite soon after a Russian court sentenced American basketball star Brittney Griner to nine years in prison for carrying hashish oil in cartridges, statements began pouring out from Washington and Moscow about a prisoner swap. The Americans wanted Griner and an American marine Paul Whelan, serving a 16-year sentence in a Russian prison on charges of spying, to be released in exchange for the release of Russian arms dealer Viktor Butov serving a 25-year prison sentence in the United States. White House national security spokesperson Nicholas Kirby did not lose much time when he announced that the US was ready for swapping prisoners.

He said, “We urge them to accept it. They should have accepted it weeks ago when we first made it.” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on a visit to Cambodia said, “We are ready to discuss this topic, but within the framework of the channel that was agreed upon by presidents (Vladimir) Putin and (Joe) Biden.” And Lavrov followed it up with a rhetorical warning about the manner this swapping of prisoners is to be done: “If the Americans decide to once again resort to public diplomacy...that is their business, and I would even say that it is their problem.” This is a clear hint that the Russians want this issue to be settled quietly, away from the limelight.

The Russians have had an uneasy equation with the Americans since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. There was a phase when it seemed that the US and the West were willing to accommodate Russia as reflected in G8, when G7, the group of rich and industrialised countries was expanded. And Russian President Vladimir Putin was a guest of US President George W Bush at his private ranch in Texas in November 2001. Twenty-one years later, Putin has become the foe of the US in terms of foreign policy.

But the former superpower and the surviving superpower continued to deal with each other. It is also the case that the US is no more the lone superpower it was after the fall of the Soviet Union. The war in Ukraine has once again redefined their roles. Russia wants to be the power that it was, and so does the US. But during all the years of the Cold War and after, the two countries dealt with the issue of swapping prisoners. It was done even after the Ukraine war had begun.

But the exchanges between the two countries are likely to remain sharp and adversarial. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out that prisoner exchanges cannot be discussed in media. He said, “The Americans have al- ready made that mistake, suddenly deciding to use megaphone diplomacy to resolve these issues. This is not how they are resolved.” He did however concede that clemency aspect was part of the Russian law on drugs.

Despite calls for total boycott of Russian oil and gas, fertilisers et al, the US and other European Union (EU) countries have no option but to deal with Russia at different levels and in day-to-day matters. Communication with Russia cannot be cut off completely. The Russians are likely to expect that these small windows of communication could lead in the long term to relaxation of the economic sanctions as well. But it would mean that Russia must become more flexible in its Ukraine policy. It seems it would despite the rigid stance it has taken in response to the stance of the Ukrainian government. Moscow is quite aware that it cannot remain hostile towards Europe and the US because it has much to gain economically from trade connections with them.