Unpredictable Trump could spoil Biden’s chances

The US Congressional committee conducting hearings on the attack on the Capitol on January 6th, 2021, concluded its hearings last week by issuing a subpoena summoning Donald Trump to answer questions about his part in the riot intended to prevent rival Joe Biden from assuming the presidency. As could be expected, Trump has dismissed the move and could challenge it in a lengthy court case. He knows he is on safe ground because the hearings and the summons will have no effect on his core supporters in the Republican party ahead of November’s legislative election. Latest polls show he has the backing of 73 per cent of Republican voters and suggest that Republicans could win majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate. This would render Biden a lame-duck president and ensure he could not achieve major legislation during the last two years of his presidency.

Aware of this risk, Biden made a belated three-state campaign tour last week, visiting Colorado and California before coming to Oregon, a state that has voted for his Democrat party for decades. This could change if the Republican party wins contests for the post of state governor and seats in the House of Representatives in the November 8th poll.

Portland braced for Biden’s arrival by closing major roads and rerouting traffic, creating confusion and consternation among residents. Security was tight. The largest city in the state, the greater Portland area has a population of 2.5 million. Portland has a reputation of being a liberal city but there are pockets of conservatives within the city while the rural heartland is largely conservative. Due to rising costs of housing, a high crime rate and the omnipresence of homeless people, the population of Portland is declining. Portland has also become a violent city, subjected to violence by leftist anti-fascists, right-wing white supremists, and Black Lives Matter against Trumpists who call themselves Patriot Prayer. Portland’s violence has prompted outsiders to visit the city to train in disruptive tactics. Democrat administrations have been widely blamed for failing to with the ugly situation.

Democrat Tina Kotek faces Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson, who has run a well-funded campaign and has been accused of being a “spoiler” because she could take votes away from Kotek.

A progressive state, Oregon has not had a Republican governor since 1987 and has voted for a Democrat presidential candidate since 1984. Governor Kate Brown is standing down because of term limits and the race has become competitive because of Johnson. A recent poll revealed that Drazan at 36 per cent had a narrow lead over Kotek with 34 per cent while Johnson, a former state senator, had 19 per cent. There are also competitive races for Congressional seats which could determine who will have the majority in the House and Senate in Washington.

Biden’s campaigning in Oregon comes almost exactly a dozen years after then-President Barack Obama arrived in Portland for a massive rally for the Democrat nominee for governor who won by only two per cent but served two terms. It may be significant that Biden’s approval rating stands at 45 per cent about the same as did Obama’s when he campaigned in Oregon. Biden’s rating is up 9 per cent from polls conducted during June and July. His ratings rose 9 per cent among Republicans and 8 per cent among independents. His ratings also improved among Black voters and those younger than 45.

While Biden has not declared publicly that he will seek re-election, last month he reportedly told Black civil rights leader Al Sharpton that he would stand. Since Biden’s ratings have improved over summer, there has been no mention of a Democrat alternative. However, he will be 80 next month and will be the oldest US president to compete his tenure whether he runs again or not. Biden is not a young octogenarian but a man of slow wit and stiff walk. Trump, now 76, is more robust.

The main concern among US voters is the economic situation where only 22 per cent see conditions as good and 41 per cent consider them poor with 37 calling them very poor. While Democrats express optimism that the situation will get better next year Republicans and independents argue it will remain poor, according to a CNN poll.

Another poll showed that 40 per cent of respondents approve of Biden’s performance while 53 per cent do not. This is just one per cent higher than Trump had ahead of the mid-term elections in 2018. Seventy-eight per cent of Democrats approve while 29 per cent of independents and 13 per cent of Republicans approve.

Like other right-wing populists, Trump has been able to use white grievance and nationalism to maintain and boost his political power ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Trump may make his decision to run or not depending on how Republicans do in the House election next month. This is why the mid-terms are important and no state should be ignored.

Another four years of Trump could completely wreck the US domestically and create global chaos.

Trump is prepared to reverse the positive programmes that Biden has wrought during this first two years in office, undermine US democracy by denying the vote to people of colour, refuse to address climate change, and adopt destructive foreign policies.

On foreign affairs, Biden has made major blunders. He staged a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanis- tan in 2021, leaving the Taliban in control of a country where poverty is rife, human rights are non- existent, and Daesh is making a comeback. Biden has intervened heavily in the Ukraine war without thinking of how to end this conflict with both Ukraine and Russia intact. By feeding Ukraine’s military machine with weapons to keep the conflict going, Biden is certain to wreck Ukraine, alienate Russia and plunge the global economy into recession.

However, misguided Biden has been, Trump would have been a far greater threat. Seeking a foreign policy triumph before the 2020 presidential election, Trump negotiated the Afghan withdrawal deal Biden ineptly implemented. It is impossible to know what the impulsive Trump would have done about the two issues which prompted Russia to invade Ukraine: its determination to join NATO despite vehement Russian opposition and the constant shelling of the Russian-majority Donbas area in eastern Ukraine. It is impossible to predict what Trump will do in any circumstance. This is what makes him dangerous.