All eyes on COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh

Two events taking place this week are certain to affect the lives of the 7.8 billion people on our planet. Yesterday saw the launch at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt of COP27, the 27th Conference of the Parties which in 1995 subscribed to the UN Framework on Climate Change. Tomorrow, US voters go to the polls to elect all 435 members of the House of Representative and 35 members of the Senate.

Neither COP27 nor the US mid-term election are expected to energise the flagging campaign to save the earth although climate change disasters are multiplying across all continents and regions.

While US President Joe Biden and a host of other world leaders are attending COP27, China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are not. China, with a population of 1.4 billion of the world’s 7.9 billion, is the top polluter. The US, with a population of 332 million, comes second and India, with 1.3 billion people, is third. Russia, with 143.4 million people, is fourth. This being the case, China and India, with nearly one-third of the world’s inhabitants, will not be represented by their heads of government at COP27.

While reducing national emissions is the overall goal, this can only succeed if citizens change their behaviour. Among the top four emitters, US citizens are the greatest polluters followed by Russians, Chinese and Indians.

In a world beset by fuel and grain shortages, inflation, economic downturn, and heavy spending on military materiel due to the Ukraine war, climate change, the most serious challenge we face, has slipped from top of the agenda of leaders from developed countries. They are, unfortunately, preoccupied with the consequences of this unnecessary war.

No one expects serious progress from COP27 although the latest extreme weather events in this region, the US, Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia should serve as a warning to policy makers in countries which have created climate change during two and a half centuries of industrialisation.

This year thousands died from flooding in Pakistan, Nigeria and South Africa and millions face deadly heat waves or starvation from drought in the Horn of Africa and Syria. Experts predict the situation will get worse. Climate change disasters will lead to heavy losses in habitat and infrastructure, civil conflict, food insecurity, and fuel mass migration.

Instead of leading urgent implementation of commitments to reduce global warming, the US and China are at odds over trade and Taiwan. The Climate Action Tracker website reports that no country has carried out commitments laid down in the 2015 legally binding Paris agreement adopted by 196 countries. They pledged to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions by mid-century. While there has been some progress since the Paris agreement was adopted, the majority of governments have not met their own targets and developing countries victimised by global warming have not received funding to help them deal with floods, drought, and intense heat or enable them to adopt environmentally friendly technologies. Since the rich countries have failed to invest $100 billion pledged in 2009 to aid the poor, they are set to demand compensation for the disasters and losses they suffer from climate change.

Tuesday’s US election is certain to have consequences for the battle against climate change.

US pollsters and political commentators have predicted the Republican party could secure a majority in the House of Representatives but contend that the Senate could go either Republican or Democrat.

While it is traditional for US voters to opt for an administration’s opponents in the mid-term election, Biden’s low approval rating (42 per cent), inflation and other economic woes have given his mainstream Repubican critics a boost while radical followers of Donald Trump are energised by crazy conspiracy theories and false news.

The economy is the top issue this year while gun violence, crime, and abortion are considered very important on the domestic front. Russia’s invasion and Ukraine and climate change are leading issues on the foreign front but they are not as compelling as issues which impact voters’ pocket books, security and personal choices.

This election will determine the fate of Biden’s climate change agenda. The House is key to implementation of climate change measures because it holds the purse strings and a House controlled by Republican climate change deniers will not be prepared to fund Biden’s programmes. While the Democrats could retain 50 seats in the 100-member Senate, which – with the House – determines what legislation is adopted, a Republican-held House will become a spoiler, rendering Biden a lame duck who would get little legislation passed during his next two years in office.

If the Republicans do well, they will gain political momentum ahead of the 2024 races for Congress and the presidency. Arch denier and spoiler Trump, who dominates his party, might announce his intention to run on November 14th. A second Trump administration would be a disaster all round, particularly for US involvement in the global climate change campaign.

On June 17th, 2017, just six months into his presidency Trump declared the US would cease compliance with the Paris climate agreement on the ground that it would “undermine” the US economy and put the US “at a permanent disadvantage.” Subsequently, Trump adopted policies which limited emissions and protected the coal and oil industries instead of taking measures to rein in emissions.

Four years were lost. On November 4th, 2020, the day after the US presidential election which Trump lost, the US withdrawal took effect. Biden issued an executive order to rejoin the agreement on January 20th, 2021, the day of his inauguration and the US formally rejoined a month later. A second Trump withdrawal would cancel US leadership in the climate change effort and result in an additional loss of six years — two under Biden and four under Trump — in the drive to reach zero net carbon emissions by 2050.