Heat waves could break human survivability limit

A recent World Bank report, ‘Climate Investment Opportunities in India’s Cooling Sector’ warns that severe heat waves, responsible for thousands of deaths across India over the last few decades, are increasing with alarming frequency. Soon the country could become one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that break the human survivability limit. The World Bank report has said the country is experiencing higher temperatures that arrive earlier and stay far longer. Past studies have found that India has witnessed a concurrent increase in meteorological droughts and heatwaves over the last 60 years. It adds, “In April 2022, India was plunged into the grip of a punishing early spring heat wave that brought the country to a standstill, with temperatures in the capital, New Delhi, topping 46 degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit). The month of March, which witnessed extraordinary spikes in temperatures, was the hottest ever recorded.”

The report was released during the two-day “India Climate and Development Partners’ Meet” that was organized by the World Bank in partnership with the Kerala government. It also points out that in August 2021, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the Indian subcontinent would suffer more frequent and intense heatwaves over the coming decade.

“The G20 Climate Risk Atlas also warned in 2021 that heatwaves across India were likely to last 25 times longer by 2036-65 if carbon emissions remain high, as in the IPCC’s worst-case emission scenario,” it further said, adding that the heatwaves would be devastating for many poor and marginalized communities across India, who live in inadequately ventilated, hot and crowded homes without proper access to cooling. “Staying cool during extreme heat is about more than just comfort – it can constitute the precarious line between life and death,” it stated. Only eight per cent of Indian households own air-conditioning units, according to an analysis presented in the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP), 2019.

Focussing on India’s cooling strategy, the report states that India can simultaneously mitigate the heat-related risks on lives and livelihoods, lower carbon emissions, and position India as a global hub for green cooling manufacturing. Unlocking opportunities to create a sustainable cooling strategy can help India in its post-COVID recovery by boosting investments, creating jobs, reducing emissions, and securing the supply chains of medical care products, health infrastructure as well as food.

The report warned that rising heat across India can jeopardize economic productivity too, “Up to 75 per cent of India’s workforce, or 380 million people, depend on heat-exposed labour, at times working in potentially life-threatening temperatures. With heat-exposed working contributing to nearly half of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, the country is extremely vulnerable to job losses…India’s long-term food security and public health security will depend on a reliable cold chain network. An analysis by McKinsey & Company shows that lost labour from rising heat and humidity could put up to 4.5% per cent of India’s GDP –approximately $150-250 billion – at risk by the end of this decade.

According to the study, the third largest producer of pharmaceuticals in the world, pre-COVID-19, India lost approximately 20% of temperature-sensitive medical products and 25% of vaccines due to broken cold chains, leading to losses of $313 million a year. “A single temperature lapse in the journey can break the cold chain, spoiling fresh produce and weakening the potency of vaccines. With only 4% of fresh produce in India covered by cold chain facilities, annual estimated food losses total $13 billion”, it added.  Anticipating the complex cooling energy trends and challenges facing India, in 2019, the report points out that the government of India has launched the ICAP to help provide sustainable cooling and thermal comfort for all. This study focused on the ICAP’s thematic cross-sectoral areas including space cooling in buildings, cold chain and refrigeration, transport air-conditioning and refrigerants.

The authors have identified specific and scalable interventions that can be achieved through partnerships with various actors to help implement the ICAP goals. The analysis also identifies eight key clustered opportunities where concessional finance can play a significant role in advancing the goals of ICAP and sustainable cooling in India, presents actionable roadmaps for four cooling sectors and includes prioritized opportunities for concessional financing and private sector investments. The roadmaps also identify key policy actions that are required to jumpstart action in each of the associated sectors. The analysis recognizes the key stakeholders required for planning and implementation as well.