Peace offers in the middle of war

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was willing to negotiate peace with Ukraine, but on Russia’s terms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rang up Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and sought his help in negotiating peace with Russia based on his 10 points. His 10 points are not yet in public domain. Meanwhile, both Putin and Zelensky expressed their determination to fight the war till the bitter end. It is indeed a paradoxical situation.

There is no doubt that after 10 months of war, both sides think that negotiations are needed. It does not matter what they say about fighting the war till their respective goals are met. Russia has failed to achieve its initial goal of replacing the Zelensky government in Kiev, and Ukraine will not be able to reclaim Crimea and some of the eastern parts of Ukraine now under Russian occupation. Negotiations will not be easy, but the fact that each side has expressed the desire to negotiate is a step in the right direction.

Interestingly, Putin has referred to Ukraine and its Western supporters as possible interlocutors of peace.  He understands that it is not going to be an unmediated dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. While Russia would be the lone interlocutor, Ukraine will have others talking for it. Countries like Turkey and India could be the possible mediators.

In the context of Russia drone and missile attacks on the energy infrastructure in Ukraine, which plunged KIev and other cities in darkness and without power in the middle of a harsh winter, Zelensky proclaimed that despite the darkness they will drive out the Russian invaders. Putin said that the war was being fought to protect the interests of Russia and its people.

It will indeed be difficult for peace if Russia and Ukraine stick to their stated positions. It is also difficult for them to yield ground to the other. Ukraine cannot possibly cede the territories in east of Ukraine that Russia has occupied in the course of this war that started with the Russian invasion on February 24 this year. And Ukraine cannot possibly reclaim Crimea that Russia had occupied in 2014.

But the war is proving to be costly for both sides. Russia has met with several setbacks on the battlefront, and huge losses of men and arms. When it began the war, it had overwhelming military superiority. But the Ukrainians have shown grit and determination in resisting the invasion and fighting back, though greatly helped by American military and financial aid.

The energy infrastructure has been destroyed on a large scale and it will make billions of dollars to rebuild it. Meanwhile, the economic distress caused by Western sanctions against Russia has been substantial and Moscow is feeling more than the pinch. Countries like China and India are buying Russian oil and gas, but Russia needs the European markets to keep its external trade booming.

So, there are enough compulsions for both Ukraine and Russia to seek peace. Most probably, Russia would want an assurance from the West and Ukraine that there would be no expansion of the NATO. But that seems a nominal thing with Finland and Sweden about to join the Western military alliance. Russia wanted NATO to be kept away from its borders and it is not happening from the Baltic side.

Secondly, the West is unlikely to accept the condition that NATO cannot expand because that would mean a Russian veto on what NATO can and cannot do. The proposed peace initiatives would be hard to take forward.