China, surprise peacemaker in Saudi-Iran ties

China stepped onto the world stage as a peacemaker with the March 10th agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen embassies in each others’ capitals. This was followed by last week’s meeting in Beijing of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian.

Commenting on Beijing’s involvement in this deal, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China supports the strategic independence and rejection of foreign “interference” in countries in this region.

 Saudi Arabia has applied for dialogue partner status on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and Central Asian Republics. India and Pakistan have joined as full members while Saudi Arabia joins Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and others as dialogue partners.  The Organisation is an economic, political and military grouping which plans to hold exercises among members. The addition of Arab partners scuppers the pie-in-the-sky US proposal for an Arab NATO.  

Although Riyadh and Tehran had held five rounds of lower-level talks brokered by Baghdad and Oman had tried to play a role in normalising relations between the Sunni and Shia regional heavyweights, China surprised interested global capitals by clinching the deal. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Washington’s eyes and-ears, was dumbfounded. Although the breakthrough signified waning of US influence in this region, Washington reluctantly called the agreement a “good thing” if it deescalated tensions in the region.

 Washington was never in a position to negotiate such an accord for two reasons. The first is the prolonged US confrontation with Iran’s clerical rulers who overthrew US ally Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979. The second is since World War II, Washington has adopted an adversarial approach to world affairs. This is summed up in the infantile slogan, “You are either with us or against us.”

As far as the US is concerned there is no room for “neutrality” or “non-alignment.” This was a foolish policy when adopted and remains a foolish policy today. The need to choose has alienated Asian, African, Middle Eastern, and South American countries and has prompted US meddling in the affairs of key non-aligned countries.  

The most influential of the non-aligned has been, of course, India, which with Egypt, Yugoslavia, and Cyprus formed the Non-Aligned Movement. While India was too big to fall to the US diktat, Egypt suffered attacks by US ally Israel, Yugoslavia fractured, and Cyprus was invaded by US-ally Turkey and divided. After adopting an independent, pan-Arab line, Iraq was occupied by the US in 2003.  

While retaining relations with the US, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have adopted independent policies on several key issues. Riyadh has made common cause with Russia over oil producers’ volume of exports and pricing and has dismissed US pressure for increasing supplies in order to lower prices. Despite US opposition, the United Arab Emirates has propelled Arab efforts to restore and normalise relations with Syria, isolated and boycotted since the eruption of that country’s civil conflict in 2011. Saudi Arabia — which shuttered its embassy in Damascus — has agreed to restore consular relations. Egypt – which retained its consular section — is expected to restore full diplomatic ties. Tunisia is set to reopen its embassy and Syrian President Bashar Al Assad may be invited by Saudi Arabia to the May 19th Arab summit in Riyadh.

No one should have been surprised by China’s effort to broker the Saudi-Iran deal. China has major economic interests in this region and is determined to avoid war, promote stability and maintain trade. Over the past decade, China has overtaken the US as the region’s — and the UAE’s — main trading partner. China exports a wide range of goods to the Arab world, including electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, nuclear reactors, plastics, iron and steel articles, refined petroleum, gold, and pharmaceutical products.

Discounted oil prices made Russia China’s chief supplier this year, overtaking Saudi Arabia. Angola, Iraq, and Oman made up the top five. These regional producers provide about half of China’s oil imports. The US Foreign Affairs Committee reported that from 2005 to 2022, Chinese investments and contracts in the region amounted to $275 billion.  In 2021 alone, Chinese investment shot up by 360 per cent and construction by 116 per cent over the 2020 figure. Investment in energy amounts to 45 per cent of the total. China’s Belt and Road initiative, linking Beijing to the countries of this region and Asia, has promoted both investment and trade and reinforces its geopolitical interests in this region.

Like China, the Arabs have kept their distance from the US-led NATO-prosecuted war against Russia in Ukraine which has shifted global attention to the European theatre of war at a time famine, drought, and non-European conflicts are roiling this region and Africa.

Under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations the US has gradually reduced involvement on this region and pivoted east to focus on China. The disastrous US occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq have forced the Arabs to reassess Washington’s disruptive role in the troubled region. While US retains iron-clad ties to Israel, Washington’s connections to traditional Arab partners have weakened, allowing China to promote its interests and cultivate relations while not taking sides in disputes. This stance has enabled China to mediate the Saudi-Iran agreement.    

China does not confine itself to brokering reconciliation between longstanding antagonists and promoting relations with Arab governments. Beijing also seeks to distance Europe from the US. To this end, China invited French President Emmanuel Macron for a state visit. Macron was keen to take this opportunity to ask China to mediate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. China, however, cannot be a neutral mediator in this conflict. China is Russia’s ally but does not endorse the Ukraine war and hass not been providing Russia with arms.

Macron was given a warm welcome because he has expressed misgivings about this war. Beijing hopes he could convince others in Europe to be wary of depending on entanglement in this NATO-driven conflict and detach itself somewhat from the EU global hegemon.

China’s state-owned Global Times daily summed up in an editorial, “It is clear to everyone that being a strategic vassal of Washington is a dead end. Making the China-France relationship a bridge for China-Europe cooperation is beneficial to both sides and to the world.”