Ofsted’s inspection evidence raises questions

James Moore, The Independent

We always want inspections to be constructive and collaborative, and in the vast majority of cases school leaders agree that they are.

You’ll probably have seen that statement — or something very similar to it — if you’ve followed events since Ruth Perry, the head of Caversham Primary in Reading, took her own life following an Ofsted inspection.

It is the beleaguered organisation’s stock line in response to a torrent of criticism, and it is driven by a long established PR tactic: if you doggedly stick to your messaging the dust will hopefully settle, and you can carry on as before.

But here’s what hasn’t been asked: is there any evidence to back Ofsted’s assertion?

I asked for the source. In response, I was sent a link to a government web page containing “responses to post-inspection surveys: inspections and visits between 1 April 2021 and 31 March 2022”. The information there was anything but easy to access. But to the press office’s credit, they supplied me with a screenshot.

And lo, at first glance, it does indeed does appear that the responses back Ofsted’s line.

The list of statements includes “inspectors took good account of the views of leaders”, “inspectors took good account of the views of staff”, “judgements made by inspectors were justified based on the evidence collected”, and so on.

Respondents were given choices ranging from one, strongly agree (to the left), to five, strongly disagree (to the right). The numbers show the majority of respondents ticked number one, or number two, in response to the statements.

But here’s the first big problem. All schools made subject to inspections are sent the survey. Some 1,772 respondents out of 3,614 schools responded; so 48 per cent of the sample. But this in no way, shape or form represents a proper poll which would justify a statement like the one Ofsted has been making.

It isn’t a statistically representative sample of school leaders that underwent an Ofsted inspection. It is, instead, a self-selecting sample of schools which chose to respond.

Why would an unhappy school choose not to respond? Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Headteachers (NAHT), explains: “Many school leaders have little faith that responding to Ofsted’s own surveys will make any kind of meaningful difference, hence why we have seen so many deciding to speak out publicly instead.”

But it gets worse. If you take a look at those Ofsted questions, you will see that they are clearly biased. They are designed to elicit a positive response, which violates polling rule number one: if you want to get an honest view from your respondents, you should construct a neutral question that does not lead the respondent to a preferred answer.

This is something I had drilled into me when I was taught how to report on polls.

Let’s take statement number one: “Inspectors took good account of the views of leaders”.

A neutral way of wording this statement would be to say something like: “How do you feel about the account inspectors took about the views of school leaders? Please answer from bad (5) to good (1)”.

For argument’s sake you could then flip it with the next one. So: “How do you feel about the account inspectors took of the views of staff? Please answer from 1 to 5 with 1 being the worst and 5 being the best”.

Obviously I’m just spit-balling here. A reputable pollster, commissioned to produce something representing the honestly held views of the teaching profession would clearly construct something far superior to my attempt. But you get my drift.

By the way, nowhere in the statements are the words “constructive and collaborative” found. And even if you’re willing to concede that a fair number of respondents were okay with what happened when Ofsted rocked up, a questionable survey answered by 48 per cent of those contacted, not all of whom were positive, is not my idea of a “vast majority”.

Would anyone still be debating Brexit or Humza Youssaf’s appointment as Scotland’s first minister if 52 per cent was truly a “vast majority”?

Here’s what is also true. If this were a legitimate gauge of opinion, it is still no excuse for trying to brush aside some of criticisms recently levelled at Ofsted by people ranging from teachers to Ms Perry’s family, to unions like the NAHT, to the organisation’s own (former) inspectors.