Biden has the advantage in 2024 polls

He has been saying he would for some weeks now. On Tuesday, he has made the official announcement with a campaign video. It showed the attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021 after Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election and refused to accept the defeat.

That is indeed a powerful image to show that Trump and his Republican supporters pose a threat to American democracy. It is this point that might win Biden the second term as president of the United States. He said, “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we’re in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are. This is not a time to be complacent.

That’s why I’m running for re-election. Let’s finish this job. I know we can.”

Biden is framing the campaign theme as an existential issue for American democracy. It is not just a difference between different programmes of the candidates. He sees Trump as threatening American democracy with his ‘Making America Great Again (MAGA)”, and the need to defeat his agenda as the need of the hour. This would mean in many ways that it would be a re-run of the 2020 contest.

The difference is that in 2020, Trump was the incumbent president and Biden the challenger. This time round, Biden is the incumbent. American history shows that the incumbent has advantage over the challenger, and Trump is one of the few presidents who lost the election after completing his first term. He lost the election by seven million votes. But his refusal to concede defeat had sent a negative about American democracy across the globe. Will it cost Trump his attempt to become president again?

An issue that both the candidates face is age. Biden is 80 and Trump is 76. By the time the election gets over and the new president takes office in January 2025, Biden would be 82 and Trump would be 78. Both seem to be in good shape, but Republican voters as well as Democrats seem to have reservations about the age factor. But the Democratic National Committee (DNC) bosses seem to believe that Biden is a good bet to defeat Trump with his erratic ways. Biden is not likely to face any great challenge within his party, and the Republican field of contenders against Trump, especially the much-touted Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, are yet to prove their credentials as challengers to reckon with. It is for this reason that political observers believe that it will be a Biden-Trump fight in 2024.

Biden, despite his low ratings, is seen to have managed the last two years in White House quite well, with increased spending on the COVID-19 crisis as well as governmental spending on building America’s crumbling infrastructure. It is to be seen whether his strong stance on Ukraine, and his uncompromising and aggressive stance against Russia on its invasion of Ukraine will strike a chord with voters. The war is not going anywhere and America has already spent billions of dollars by way of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Americans have been quite ambivalent on America’s wars abroad ever since the end of the Second World War.

On balance, Biden certainly has an advantage over Trump. The popularity ratings show that Biden leads with 43 per cent over Trump’s 38 per cent. It is not a big lead which can be closed any time, but it shows that Biden is ahead, and he maintains his lead. This would also mean that there would be less excitement in the 2024 presidential race.