Always centre stage

A comic-actor-turned-war-leader Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has become a major character in a European tragic drama which could usher in nuclear exchanges between Russia and NATO. He remains an actor always centre stage who declaims well-scripted speeches to theatregoers around the world and rarely fails to impress with his demeanour and dedication to “democracy and freedom.” At the outset of the war, he made good use of Zoom, the safe form of communication during covid, to reach world politicians, pundits, and publics he sought to enlist in his crusade to defeat Russia.

Since then, he has turned to globe-trotting with his production, including staging a pre-Christmas pantomime in Washington. This year alone, he has turned up in London, Paris, Brussels, Warsaw, Helsinki, The Hague, Rome, Vatican City, Berlin, Jeddah, Hiroshima and the Moldovan capital. He grew his beard to age his baby face and costumed in olive green fatigues and combat boots. He loves celebrity and the adulation of Western leaders, media, and populace.

During star performances he has begged, bragged, and bullied the leaders of the US and Europe into donating $50 billion in materiel to fight his war with Russia. Zelensky is fighting a proxy war for US President Joe Biden, who hoped war would boost his approval rating above lower 40s, and Eastern European leaders, who have well-deserved grudges against the former Soviet Union which ceased to exist in 1991. They are delighted to support Ukraine as long as they do not become directly involved.

Despite the flight of 7-8 million out of 44 million Ukrainians, destruction wrought by the war, and a 30 per cent shrinkage of his country’s economy, Zelensky enjoys a 90 per cent approval rating at home. However, close associates, members of his party, and professional politicians have begun to have doubts about Zelensky. He remains an actor. He has not metamorphised into a politician who understands the limits of power and the need for compromise. As a result, he and his antagonist Russian President Vladimir Putin face each other in an unwinnable war.

Putin has the advantage of the long haul. His ramshackle, shambolic armed forces have been following Russia’s traditional way-of-war by throwing thousands of troops into battle in the expectation they will win eventually. Russia is also the world’s largest country which Ukraine’s forces can damage but not devastate. Ukraine’s military has, so far, managed to defend most of the territory of the much, much smaller country at a huge price in death and destruction.

Zelensky began his career in 2015 in a popular television series by playing the part of a history teacher who becomes Ukraine’s president. The name of the series was “Servant of the People.” The teacher reached this post after a video of him cursing corruption was widely circulated. In 2019, Zelensky ran for the top job against Petro Poroshenko, a right-wing nationalist oligarch, and won with 73 per cent of the vote. His party, dubbed Servant of the People, then secured a majority of seats in parliament. This was the first time in modern Ukraine’s history that a president was in such an advantageous position.

Zelensky had pledged to make peace with Russia as the countries had been sparring over Crimea and the Russian-majority eastern Donbas region for a decade. He also sought to tackle corruption, rein in Ukraine’s oligarchs, restore media freedoms, and effect economic reforms. He was not successful in implementing his agenda because he believed once his legislation was approved by parliament it would be enacted without wheeling-and-dealing and compromise. Ahead of the crisis with Russia, his popularity rating had fallen to 31 per cent.

While he found it difficult to deliver on the domestic front, Zelensky sought to capitalise on popular support for Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership, despite Russia’s vehement opposition. In June 2020. Kyiv joined an alliance programme and in September he approved Ukraine’s efforts to promote partnership with NATO with the aim of gaining membership. After Russian troops began to deploy on the border in April 2021, Zelensky increased pressure on NATO to issue a roadmap for Ukraine’s accession. At the June NATO summit in Brussels, alliance leaders upheld the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member. They said Ukraine should be free to chose and Russia does not have a veto.

NATO and Ukraine followed up by conducting joint naval exercises in the Black Sea. Russia continued its build up until 93,000 troops were on the border. In December, alliance members ignored Russia’s call for limiting US and NATO influence in ex-Soviet states. The crisis escalated in early 2022 after NATO not only dismissed Russia’s concerns but also maintained the “open door” policy of the alliance.

As tension spiked, a frightened Zelensky urged the US and Britain to tone down warnings of an imminent Russian military operation as they were negatively impacting Ukraine’s economy. On Feb.24, Russia invaded. If Zelensky had been an experienced politician, he might have been able to prevent this scenario.

Zelensky imposed martial law, a ban on men between 18-60 leaving Ukraine, marginalised parliament, centralised authority, clamped down on dissidence and the media. His authoritarianism has been criticised by legislators who predict he would not be able to handle post-war reconstruction because of impatience and incompetence. They worry about his failure to transform himself from being an actor into a politician who can handle the mundane problems of relaunching Ukraine’s wounded economy, rebuilding its devastated territory, and encouraging its refugees to return home.

Meanwhile, NATO not only provides Ukraine with the means to fight Russia but also encourages him to reject negotiations and employ armed groups of Russians who oppose Putin to mount attacks on Russia. His has led to a renewal of bomb attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities and risks regional war. This could draw in neighbouring NATO powers and the US which has vulnerable military bases in Europe which could become targets of Russian attacks.

Photo: TNS