Ukraine has lost more than Russia in war

The Ukraine war was meant to be a win-win conflict for all concerned but Russia. It is in fact a lose-lose campaign for those involved. Ukraine is, of course, the greatest loser by far. The UN estimated that more than 9,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 16,000 injured. The US reported that 20,000 Ukrainian troops have been slain and 130,000 wounded through mid-May this year.

Training, arms, and money from NATO and its members have enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to defend their territory and regain land lost to Russia but as Ukraine is in no position to claim victory, the war could continue for many months wreaking death and destruction on an even greater scale.

Six million Ukrainians have fled and nine million have been displaced within the country. Ukraine is set to lose one-third of its GDP this year. The war has inflicted damage worth hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure, housing, manufacturing plant, public buildings, farming land and other facilities. Damage and devastation will continue until there is a ceasefire or the war ends. Ukrainian society has suffered a heavy blow. Millions of Ukrainians have been traumatised and could be clinically stressed and depressed for months and years. Men who have served in the military are likely to be afflicted with post-traumatic stress disorder and will need treatment. The society could be divided between those who left the country and those who stayed. Tens of thousands who went abroad might not return. Men between the ages of 18-65 who fled conscription could be prosecuted or shunned.

Differences between NATO members at the recent summit have revealed that Ukraine may not be granted fast-track admission to the alliance or the European Union. Ukraine’s staunchest ally, the US, has suggested it could be offered the sort of status and security accorded to Israel without being offered full NATO membership. While declaring its war aim is to regain all territory occupied by Russia, Ukraine is unlikely to retake the Russian-held eastern Donbas region and Crimea. This outcome would amount to a defeat for Ukraine and a pyrrhic victory for Russia. If this happens, Ukraine’s present leadership, particularly President Volodymyr Zelensky, will be blamed for failing to achieve a political settlement with Russia by renouncing Kyiv’s bid to join NATO and failing to halt right-wing Ukrainian militia attacks on these areas since 2014.

Although tens of billions of dollars have been pledged for reconstruction, it is unlikely that Ukraine will receive as much money as it needs to rebuild, particularly if the war continues and devastation grows. Furthermore, as Ukraine has a unhealthy reputation for corruption, Kyiv might have to be heavily monitored to make certain funds are spent where needed rather than disappearing into the pockets of officials, oligarchs, and contractors. Ukraine’s independence will be compromised.

Russia is certain to emerge temporarily weakened from the war, but its losses will not compare with those inflicted on Ukraine. Russia will absorb its losses and recover over time. While the Russian military has been humiliated by its poor performance during the first year of the war, troops deployed this year in eastern Ukraine have, so far, mounted an effective defence against Ukraine’s belated offensive.

While this war is not a win-win for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, he is likely to remain in power for some time. Although the country has suffered relatively minor physical damage when compared to Ukraine, sanctions have taken a toll on the economy. Some 47,000-50,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed. Damage to border towns and villages has been moderate. As the world’s largest country which is rich in oil, natural gas, minerals and food grains, Russia cannot be sanctioned indefinitely without these punitive measures negatively impacting the global economy.

The Ukraine war has exposed cracks in the NATO alliance. NATO originally had a dozen members in Europe and North America when it was created in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union and prevent the emergence of another European hegemonic power like Nazi Germany. NATO powers had similar backgrounds and a common agenda. Despite early 1990s pledges by US statesmen not to incorporate East European countries into NATO, former President Bill Clinton launched this process in 1996. His successor George W. Bush – who gave the world the unprovoked US war on Iraq – ignored Moscow’s warnings against NATO’s expansion eastward and in 2008 promised Ukraine NATO accession.

Today NATO has 31 members due to the recruitment of Soviet satellite states after the collapse of the Soviet Union between 1989-1991. The enlargement process has altered the character of the alliance. It was originally a cross-Atlantic-Western European club. Now it is a broad grouping of states with diverse backgrounds and different priorities.

Several Western European NATO members which were savaged by World War II have been more cautious in granting support to Ukraine than East European nations which endured Soviet occupation. They have been keen on using Ukraine to wage a proxy war on Russia, heart and heir of the Soviet Union. Along with the US under President Joe Biden – an eager armchair warrior seeking a second term in office – they see themselves making war on the Soviet Union which no longer exists. This is a very dangerous development and could lead to Europe-wide war if NATO deploys its forces in Ukraine or destabilise Europe if NATO fails to curb the thirst for revenge of Eastern European members.

An ignorant Biden sought to benefit politically when tensions rose between Kyiv and Moscow. This was bound to be a lose-lose proposition: Russia tolerated NATO accession by its former satellite states but Ukraine has a centuries-old intimate ethnic, religious, political, economic and cultural connection with Russia. This makes Ukraine a special case. Russia is – and was – ¬ prepared to fight NATO in Ukraine to prevent Kyiv from joining the “enemy” camp.

Biden’s future is at risk. Unlike Putin who has been in power for 23 years, he has to renew his mandate in 2024. In Ukraine, Biden has allowed himself to become trapped in a lose-lose situation just as he had in the case of his predecessor’s disastrous plan to withdraw forces from Afghanistan. The chaotic US rout by the Taliban in August 2021 may have prodded Biden to back Ukraine in its confrontation with a belligerent Russia at a time their dispute might have been resolved through negotiations.

This lose-lose war was both long provoked and totally unnecessary. It has inflicted serious harm and misery on the entire world. While NATO has invested billions of dollars in the Ukraine war, financial and humanitarian aid has shrivelled to deserving poor countries of the global south and their citizens. In response, many of these countries have turned against the militaristic US and militarised Europe to align with China and Russia. This has led to the emergence of a Eurasian centre of influence rivalling that dominated by the US. Washington has not only lost its grip on traditionally aligned countries but has also sacrificed its tenuous moral sway by focusing on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while ignoring multiple aggressions and occupations committed by others.