The coup claim in Niger is puzzling

There has been a coup in Niger, the West African country which had experienced many a coup ever since it became free from France in 1960. It was in 2021 that the country had a free and fair election, and President Mohamed Bazoum was elected. The coup was led by a section of the army. The coup members declared that they have taken over on Wednesday. And head of the Presidential guard, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, had declared himself the head of the new government on Friday.

Tchiani declared, “The security today has not brought security to the country despite heavy sacrifices.” There has been no articulation about what the security issues facing the country are. The army top brass said they did not want to interfere because they did not want a ‘bloodbath’ that would have followed.

There has been a rumour that the Russian private army, the Wagner, which was involved in a short-lived coup in Russia, was behind the coup. But United States’ State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said that Wagner was not involved. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia was opposed to the coup and it supported constitutional government. France too is opposed to the coup, and it is said that French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to President Bazoum. Many Western countries, including the United States, have given millions of dollars in military aid, and the prediction is that the coup would disrupt the aid flow from the West. The suspicion is that the extremist organisations like Al Qaeda and Daesh are threatening Niger, and Western powers want to support Niger against the extremist elements.

Niger is not the lone state in this part of Western Africa which is facing a security threat from the extremists. There has been similar trouble in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali as well, and French troops had been stationed in these countries and they were withdrawn. It seems that it is the presence of the French troops – 1,500 of them – that is behind the dissatisfaction as expressed by some of the people supporting the coup.  There are also 1,000 US personnel in Niger.

So, there are big questions hanging over Niger and the Western strategy to counter the extremist groups in the region. Kwesi Aning, director of Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre in Accra in Ghana, questioned the Western policy of military aid in the region. He said, “There are four or five countries all seeking to improve Niger’s capacity to fight the jihadists. They made big promises so what kind of assistance is it that Mali, failed, Burkina Faso failed, and now it has failed in Niger?”

He feels that if democracy is to be strengthened in these countries, then there has to be a homegrown initiative which joins military and developmental programmes. There is also the fear that the army factions would fight among themselves over who would in power, and they would forget to keep the fight against extremists going.

The West has two options before it. It has either to impose sanctions against the new government in Niger and cut off the military aid, or it has to come to an understanding with General Tchiani if it feels that it is important to fence Niger against the hardliners. It may not be an easy choice for the Western governments. Meanwhile, the new government led by the Presidential Guard will have to evolve a policy which focuses on development as well as security. More importantly, the strategy experts have to spell out the real magnitude of the threat posed by the Al Qaeda and Daesh and not use it as a pretext to create spheres of influence for themselves.