The conflict continues to damage Ukraine

Kyiv’s delayed, slow-moving offensive against the well-fortified Russian front line in eastern Ukraine has given rise to concern that the war is stalemated and conflict could continue until one side concedes or both sides are exhausted. Writing in The Washington Post on July 26th, Jason Willick quoted the US armed forces chief Mark Milley who in November 2022 compared the situation in Ukraine to that in World War I in 1914. He said that “you’ve got a war that is not winnable anymore militarily.” He warned, “Things can get worse. When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment.”

The Biden administration dismissed his comments while Russia’s response to such good advice is unknown. Willick wrote that the very “idea of exploring a political settlement was cast in Washington policy circles as undercutting Ukraine’s goal of a total victory. Expectations for Ukraine’s prospects of pulling off a decisive counter-offensive against remaining Russian positions in the East swelled through the winter and spring.”

Former British intelligence officer (MI6) Alastair Crooke, writing on Al-Mayadeen website on July 22nd, warned against “the unquestioned belief in NATO prevailing; the denigration and underestimation of (the) Russian adversary; and a lack of in-depth thinking, beyond the launch of a Ukrainian counter-offensive.”

Despite huge infusions of Western arms, the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which began two months ago, has not made much headway. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has blamed the lack of progress on insufficient troop training and the shortage of weaponry rather than effective Russian defensive preparations.

CNN reports that Ukrainian forces face “multiple layers of Russian fortifications,” trenches, tank traps, mines and obstacles. In some places the front lines are 20 kilometres deep. Attackers who penetrate one layer find they are stalled by others. Russian helicopters and fighter-bombers exploit “weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defences, enabling Russians to strike Ukrainian ground forces,” George Barros of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War told CNN.

Until recently, Ukraine did not commit large numbers of troops in its eastern counteroffensive because they have to be held in reserve to defend against Russian attacks and advances elsewhere. Barros stated, “We had not seen any evidence of a battalion-level attack and certainly no brigade-level attacks. If the Ukrainians are indeed committing full battalions and brigades now as reported, that would mark a clear new phase of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.”

Other commentators argue that even if Ukraine steps up pressure on Russia’s multiple lines, breakthroughs could be rare. The frontlines have already solidified, turning the Donbas/Crimea campaign into a war of attrition. While Ukrainian drones and artillery have targeted Russian arms dumps and troop concentrations, Russian bombers have struck at a variety of civilian and military targets across Ukraine. Russia has also expanded its call-up and secured infusions of weaponry from allies.

Moscow has also opened an economic front in its offensive to counter Western sanctions on Russia’s economy. Russia has exited last year’s deal allowing Ukraine, the world’s fourth largest exporter of grain, to ship produce through Black Sea ports. Before the war they handled the bulk of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Western politicians and commentators claim that Ukraine’s absence is creating a crisis and accuse Russia of using food as a weapon. This is an exaggeration.

According to the UN, developing countries were not the sole recipients of Ukrainian grain. While 57 per cent went to developing countries, 43 per cent was sold to developed countries. The chief recipients were China, Spain, Italy, and Turkey.

Between August 2022, when the Black Sea deal began to operate, and July this year, when it was suspended, Ukraine exported nearly 33 million tonnes of grain and other foods via the Black Sea. Of this only 725,000 tonnes of grain were sold to the World Food Programme and was delivered as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Russia claims it suspended Black Sea shipping because Western sanctions are blocking its exports of grain and fertiliser in violation of the deal. Moscow argues sanctions discourage insurance companies from covering shipments, encourage dockers to refuse to unload Russian ships, and obstruct payments to producers and suppliers by targeting the Russian agricultural bank.

These claims are refuted by facts. Despite these difficulties, Russia, the world’s top grain exporter, has managed to increase exports of grain over the past two seasons. It is estimated in the 2022/2023 season Russian exports could reach 55 to 60 million tonnes. The main markets for maritime deliveries are Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Algeria.

As far as grain exports are concerned, Russia is in a stronger position than Ukraine which depends heavily on grain and food exports and is struggling to regain territory in the east.

Nevertheless, Zelensky continues to adopt a maximalist position, arguing that his forces will fight until they liberate all Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas and Crimea. So far his Western allies, particularly US President Joe Biden, remain committed to Zelensky’s rhetoric. They are captive of his ambitions, their own rhetoric, and maintaining the war’s momentum. Bolstered by pro-war media, NATO leaders have invested so much in terms of arms, finance, and credibility that they cannot allow Ukraine to make peace now. When pressed on when negotiations might begin, they contend, “When Ukraine is in an advantageous position.” This may not happen soon, allowing the war of attrition to continue wrecking Ukraine and impoverishing its people.

While Ukraine and its partners hold firm, Russia has come under pressure from African allies to allow Ukraine to export grain and negotiate. During last week’s St. Petersburg summit with African leaders, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and other invitees urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to renew the grain deal and consider the African peace plan. This 10-point plan called for de-escalation, settlement of differences through negotiations, respect for state sovereignty, reopening the Black Sea to trade, support for humanitarian aid, release of prisoners, and giving priority to reconstruction once a ceasefire is in place. The Africans vowed to remain engaged in peacemaking.

During the summit Putin promised to reconsider the plan which both he and Zelensky rejected when it was tabled by a team of African leaders. Putin also promised to deliver free Russian grain to half a dozen African countries which suffer most from shortages and rising global grain prices. He is blamed for these developments and is expected to deliver on his promise by African allies promoting their peace plan.