All eyes on BRICS summit in South Africa

The three-day BRICS summit starting in Johannesburg on Tuesday under the presidency of South Africa comes at a critical point in the group’s history as well as the world situation. There is demand for the expansion of the five-nation group of Brazil, China, India, Russia, South Africa spread across four continents. About 40 countries are keen to join the group, and 22 countries have already filed their applications. South African President Cyril Ramphosa is keen about the expansion.

India is cautious about the plan and New Delhi says that it is open to the idea but that it needs to be discussed. The Johannesburg summit has invitations for many leaders as friends of BRICS. Bangladesh is quite keen to join immediately, and it feels that membership of BRICS would benefit its economic growth. This is the general sentiment running among many countries seeking membership of BRICS and it has been well-articulated by Chinese ambassador to South Africa Chen Xiaodong. He said, “The traditional global governing system has become dysfunctional, deficient and missing in action.”

And BRICS is seen as an emerging alternative to the Western-dominated financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). The BRICS’ New Development Bank is considered to be an attractive alternative institution. Many countries which are not members of BRICS are already shareholders of the NDB.

The BRICS is seen as representing the emerging market economies and it is attractive to other emerging economies as well as developing economies. It is felt that the centre of economic gravity is shifting from the West to Global South. Europe and North America are seen to have come to the end of the economic tether as it were, facing problems and little prospects of future growth due to ageing populations and diminishing populations. The BRICS represents 23 per cent of global GDP and 42 per cent of the world’s population, and 16 per cent share of the world trade. The numbers really favour the BRICS and the Global South.

What has caused disillusionment with the developed West is its polarised politics as seen in the Russia-Ukraine war. South Africa’s ambassador-at-large to Asia and to BRICS, Anil Sooklal, said, “Countries in the South don’t want to be told who to support, how to behave and how to conduct their sovereign affairs. They are strong enough now to assert their respective positions. The major markets are now in the Global South…but we are still on the margins in terms of global decision-making.” And adds that the BRICS have raised hopes of restructuring the global architecture.

BRICS does offer a rosy alternative, but it may not be an easy thing to achieve because the BRICS is not as cohesive as it appears to be. The India-China relations which are tense because of the border dispute between the two countries makes it a brittle grouping. And when other countries join the group’s interrelations will become complicated.

And though China is one of the countries which can raise enough capital to fund the NDB, this would also mean that there would be the question who will have more influence. Even as the United States calls the shots because of its economic clout, China too holds a similar position of power in BRICS and in the Global South as such. And not every country would be comfortable with Chinese dominance though Beijing is likely to deny its hegemonic position.

So, BRICS offers an opportunity to create an alternative system to the Western-dominated international system, but it does remain a challenge to effect the transition and change while maintaining political consensus among its members.