India likely to see highest growth in energy demand

The latest edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO), the most authoritative global source of energy analysis and projections, released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), has said that India is likely to see the highest growth in energy demand over the next three decades compared to every other country and region in the world, as highlighted by a Mongabay-India report. Much of this growth will be spurred by demands for cooling as heat worsens. India’s rising energy demands also mean its emissions will increase by another 30 percent by 2050, the report says. India is currently the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide, emitting approximately 2.7 billion tonnes per year, behind the United States of America and China.

The Mongabay-India report points out that India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. At the United Nations climate conference COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, it released its strategic roadmap to reaching this goal, which includes increasing nuclear capacity three-fold by 2032 and ramping up green hydrogen production, among other measures. India has also set a national goal of installing 500 gigawatts of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030. In order to meet this goal, renewable energy investments need to triple, says the IEA. In 2022, investments to renewable energy numbered $60 billion, and are likely to double by 2030 going by current projections. Mongabay-India adds that the IEA report notes that India has made headway with its solar PV (photovoltaic) production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme which can potentially reduce import dependence. Between 2021 and 2022, India imported $3.4 billion worth of solar PVs. The PLI scheme aims to add 65 GW of new manufacturing capacity every year, and this year, a total of 48 GW of new capacity was considered eligible for subsidy awards once manufacturing begins. According to the IEA report, “If the new solar PV module manufacturing capacity under the PLI programme comes fully online by 2026, it would progress the solar PV module manufacturing capacity in India to well over what is needed until the end of this decade.”

Heatwaves in India are likely to become more frequent and intense with global heating, several studies show. This, coupled with a rise in populations moving to urban areas will cause ownership of air conditioners to skyrocket by nine times by 2050, the IEA projects and the Mongabay-India report highlights. As a result, demand for oil and natural gas increases…by nearly 70% between 2022 and 2050, while coal demand increases by 10%... and India’s demand for air conditioning alone exceeds total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today, the WEO-2023 states. However, if India were to achieve all its stated climate and energy goals, electricity demand would reduce by 15% compared to projections in the current scenario, due to the use of energy efficient air conditioning and thermal insulation in buildings. “This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands,” says the WEO-2023 report.

An IEA press release says that major shifts underway today are set to result in a considerably different global energy system by the end of this decade, according to WEO 2023. The phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps is reshaping how we power everything from factories and vehicles to home appliances and heating systems. The WEO-2023 describes an energy system in 2030 in which clean technologies play a significantly greater role than today. This includes almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide; solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system does currently; renewables’ share of the global electricity mix nearing 50%, up from around 30% today; heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally; and three times as much investment going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal- and gas-fired power plants.

The WEO-2023 proposes a global strategy for getting the world on track by 2030 that consists of five key pillars, which can also provide the basis for a successful COP28 climate change conference. They are tripling global renewable capacity; doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements; slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75%; innovative, large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies; and measures to ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.