Sunak faces election wipeout, top pollster warns

Adam Forrest and Kate Devlin, The Independent

Professor Sir John Curtice said Sunak’s bid to use his personal appeal to lift Tory fortunes since succeeding Liz Truss has failed. In a grim seasonal message, Sir John said the prime minister faces a “very bleak situation”. The Conservatives could lose as many as 220 of their current total of 350 MPs in the election due next year, he claimed, warning they are heading for a “collapse” on a par with Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. “Sunak as a personality has failed to bring up his party,” Sir John told The Independent.

The forecast came as the prime minister warned migrants could “overwhelm” countries including the UK without changes to global refugee rules, such as the Refugee Convention or the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Critics accused him of a “bidding war” with former home secretary Suella Braverman for the most “toxic” contribution to the debate. His comments were made at a festival organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni. Asked if the Tories would do better in the election if the PM manages to start sending migrants to Rwanda, the polling guru said: “The short answer is no. Yes, some core voters are upset (about immigration). But it’s not the core vote you need to win back – it’s those who are saying they won’t vote Conservative.”

Sunak had blundered by not focusing on the economy and the NHS, he argued. “People are asking two main questions: ‘Can I afford to feed my kids?’ and, ‘If I fall ill, will the NHS look after me?’

“Unless they come up with better answers, this government will struggle politically,” said Sir John, who is renowned for his near 100 per cent accurate predictions on polling day. The PM is desperately hoping that rebellious Tory MPs will back his Rwanda bill, and that his first deportation flight can take off by spring, in a bid to deliver on his “stop the boats” promise. But Sir John said: “On immigration, probably the fundamental mistake the (Conservatives) are making is assuming the preoccupations of their activists and MPs are the same as the public.” Sir John said his own “poll of polls” analysis of five recent surveys gives Labour an 18-point lead, meaning the Tories are facing their worst-ever result at the general election.

He said they would be “lucky” to win more than 200 seats in the best-case scenario for the party, adding: “They are facing a collapse on the scale of 1997. It’s a very bleak situation for the Conservatives.” The Tories were left with 165 seats in 1997, when the John Major-led party was thumped by Labour — which won a 179-seat majority. Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta, said his own company’s analysis currently has the Tories winning just under 150 seats. But he agreed with Sir John that it could be closer to 200 if enough “don’t know” voters return to the Tories.

“I think Labour looks on course for a three-digit majority. We’re definitely in landslide territory. There’s no doubt the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble,” the pollster said. Hopkins said getting the one-way flights going to Rwanda may help Sunak – but warned that the PM’s row with Conservative MPs over the bill could make things even worse. “The Rwanda policy is more likely to expose Tory divisions, which could add to the damage.” Sunak faces a major battle with his own MPs in the early months of 2024. The Tory right has threatened to “kill” the Rwanda bill if it is not toughened up, while One Nation moderates want to amend it in a bid to soften its impact.

Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward agreed the Rwanda issue was becoming a “distraction” and was “causing the party real problems” despite immigration figuring highly as a key concern of voters. “Immigration matters to a lot of 2019 Conservative voters. And yet Rwanda is a distraction, particularly if there is a split within the party. People don’t vote for split parties,” Lord Hayward said. The elections expert said the focus on the Rwanda bill was crowding out more positive news on inflation, which has been halved since the start of 2023 as Sunak promised. “The economy is the prime issue,” said the Tory peer.