Chad’s draft constitution approved in referendum

About 86 per cent of the 64 per cent had voted for – eight million of 18 million population are eligible to vote -- the new draft Constitution in Chad. Power was given to the military to manage the transition and take back the country to democratic rule after the death of long-time ruler Idriss Deby in 2021, and his son, Mahmat Idriss Deby, had succeeded his father through a coup.

Protests broke out in the country demanding democracy. It is in response to this that the constitution was drafted and the National Commission Charged with the Organisation of the Constitutional Referendum (CONOREC) had conducted the referendum. The provision that Deby cannot contest the 2024 election was excised. But according to Western news agency reports it is not clear whether Deby will contest the election or not.

The old constitution was unitary. That is, the national government will rule the country directly and there will be no autonomous provincial governments. The opposition parties are opposed to the unitary constitution and they feel that it is a way of keeping the transition government’s – which includes the military – hold on power as before. The opposition also argues that a federal constitution will ensure greater freedom for the local government and the country. The defenders of the unitary constitution say that federalism holds the danger of encouraging factional contests, and the country’s unit can be preserved only through a single national authority. But the transitional government had provided space for local governments and local legislatures, which is a concession to the opposition demand.

Chad is geographically placed in a region where there have been political instability and military coups. Chad’s neighbours which face political turbulence include Male, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea. The interesting external factor in the political trouble in these countries is that the military which had taken over power has asked France to withdraw its troops.

In contrast, Chad continues to be an ally of France, and it gets economic aid and assistance from Paris. Opposition to the Chad authorities continues, and it is from rebels who had been challenging the Deby regime from bases in Sudan and Libya. It is a complicated scenario where many of these countries are interlocked in political and territorial battles.

So, the question rises whether the new constitution and the elections that are supposed to follow will bring political stability to Chad. Many of the experts believe that there cannot be political stability because the old elite will continue to rule through the new constitutional setup.

Foreign affairs expert Chris Ogunmodede says that the younger Deby is playing by the same political book like his father, where he will remain in power and a system dominated by the military. He says that the “current trajectory bodes poorly for the establishment of ‘peace’ in Chad, however the word is defined. It is possible that this ‘referendum’, to the extent that it offers any real choices, might trigger a chain of events that creates another major dilemma in the country.”

Ogdunmodede’s analysis presents a gloomy picture. The new constitution might not solve all the problems facing Chad, including the economic ones, especially poverty, but it can open a small window of opportunity through local governments and local legislatures to develop democracy at the grassroots. And there could be a gradual change in the political system, with transparency and accountability as the criteria for democratic governance.

Unlike in the surrounding countries, the conflict in Chad is not based on ethnic and religious differences, but over the issue of democratic government. The protesters might fail to bring in democracy through political battles, but democratic functioning at the ground can bring in far more changes than expected.