The killing of Saleh Arouri was predictable

Saturday’s salvo of Hizbollah rockets targeting the Meron Israeli military surveillance base on Mount Jarmaq in northern Israel was the initial response for Israel’s assassination in Beirut last week of the deputy head of Hamas’s politburo Saleh Arouri. This was the first time Hizbollah has targeted this base which is the primary facility for electronic, aerial warfare and intelligence in northern Israel. The base’s activities cover Syria, Lebanon, and southern Turkey as well as Lebanon, Al-Mayadeen website reports.

During his televised addressed following the killing of Arouri, Hizbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had threatened retaliation without indicating when and where this would take place. The strike on the Meron base was the initial hit in Hizbollah’ s retaliation plan. Israel replied by striking the “launch pad” for the Hizbollah missiles, sticking to the formula for limited exchanges between the Israeli military and Hizbollah following the October 7th Hamas attack on southern Israel which the Israeli daily Haaretz reported killed 1,151, a large proportion of whom were soldiers and police.

As a major political party in Lebanon, Hizbollah cannot afford another war with Israel although the movement seeks to create a second active front on the Lebanese-Israeli border to force Israel to deploy troops there while fighting Hamas in Gaza. While Lebanon has been on alert since the assassination, Nasrallah stated in his January 3rd televised address that the movement would be guided by “Lebanon’s situation and national interests” and stick to limited exchanges of missiles and fire.

Hizbollah cannot mount a full-scale punitive cross-border operation against Israel as this could provide Tel Aviv with a pretext to wage total war on Lebanon. This would be particularly unwise while Israel has a US greenlight to assault and level Gaza without ceasefire or consequences.

Nasrallah declared Hizbollah would respond with full force if Israel makes war on Lebanon. “We are not afraid of war,” he stated.

On December 8th, after a bout of particularly violent cross-border exchanges, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned, “If Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war, then it will, by its own hand, turn Beirut and southern Lebanon...into Gaza and Khan Younis.” Israel has demonstrated repeatedly that it has the airpower, the tool used to devastate Gaza, to carry out this threat.

As Israel has the Biden administration’s political backing and a steady supply of weapons and munitions, Israel could attack weak and divided Lebanon whenever Israeli politicians decide to reopen this front. While Israel has a standing army of 169,500 and 465,000 reservists, its army is fully engaged in the war against Gaza and thousands of reservists have been demobilised to return to their jobs as the Gaza war has delivered a blow to Israel’s economy.

If Israel were to mount another major wrecking campaign against Lebanon, Hizbollah could inflict serious damage on northern and central Israel. Since fighting Israel to a stand-off in 2006, Israel’s latest full-scale war on Lebanon, Hizbollah has both expanded and diversified its arsenal and expanded its armed forces. Hizbollah is the world’s most potent non-state actor with an army more powerful than the armies of many states. At this time, Hizbollah could launch short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles at Israeli cities and towns. Hizbollah has an arsenal of 100,000 missiles to launch at land, ship, and air targets in Israel. Hizbollah can also muster 25,000 well-trained full-time fighters and 20,000-30,000 reservists.

The sides are constrained by mutual deterrence. During the 2006 war between Hizbollah and Israel, some 300-500,000 civilians evacuated central and northern Israel. More than a million Lebanese were driven from their homes in the south of the country.

The killing of Saleh Arouri was predictable once Israel declared it intended to eliminate Hamas leaders wherever they might be. As a resident of crisis-ridden Lebanon, Arouri was the most vulnerable of the senior Hamas figures based outside the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. The top Hamas political leaders Khaled Mishaal and Ismail Haniyeh dwell in Qatar which hosts the US and British air forces at the massive Udeid airbase. Furthermore, Qatar has played the key role in mediating the week-long cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the release of Hamas’ Israeli captives in exchange for Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would take harsh action against any Israeli attempt to kill Hamas personnel in that country.

The location of Israel’s attack on Arouri in the south Beirut Dahiyeh Hizbollah stronghold was meant to demonstrate to Israelis the reach of Israeli intelligence and military prowess and to embarrass Hizbollah which failed to protect him and the colleagues who died with him. This is why Hizbollah vowed early retribution.

The assassination was not, however, a major feat. Israel constantly flies surveillance and armed drones over Lebanon and Israeli war planes regularly violate Lebanese sovereignty to use its air space to launch missiles at targets in Syria. While Hizbollah may shoot down some of the drones, how could the movement identify the mission of the specific drones which struck Arouri?

Targeting Arouri may also be for the Israelis an own goal. He was a senior figure who was involved in the founding of Hamas’ armed wing, al-Qassam Brigades, and may have planned operations in the West Bank, his home turf. But, Arouri also played a key role in the release of Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Hamas has responded by saying there will be no captive releases until Israel ends the onslaught on Gaza. The Cairo negotiations on releases have been suspended.

While Netanyahu and members of this government contend that they will rescue the 100-plus captives during their ground offensive in Gaza. The most recent attempt at rescue came to a bad end with the death of the hostage. Israeli troops also killed three hostages when encountering them in mid-December in devastated Gaza City. The men were shirtless and waving the white flag of surrender when they were shot dead by Israeli troops. Shooting at anyone brandishing a white flag is a breach of Israeli military rules of engagement and of the international laws of war. If other captives learn of what happened to these men, they will be leery of surrendering to the Israeli army and hope for exchanges with Palestinian prisoners. Retrieving live captives is the Israeli government’s declared priority although every bomb dropped on Gaza threatens their existence.