China’s population drops for a second year in 2023

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population dropped by 2.08 million in 2023 compared to a drop of 850,000 in 2022. The total population of China now stands at 1.409 billion. The disturbing fact was the death rate in 2023 which had touched 6.6 per cent or 11.1 million.

The rise in the death rate has been the first time since 1974, during the Cultural Revolution. This is being attributed to the deaths due to Covid-19 when the Chinese government had lifted quarantine restrictions in December 2022 in the face of protests. There is, however, no clear indication from the Chinese sources as to the reason for the rise in the death rate.

The birth rate recorded a low of 6.39 births per 1,000 down from 6.77 births per 1,000 in 2022. The fall in the birth rate is seen as a consequence of the one-child policy adopted in 1980, and that its cumulative effect is now discernible. Demographers are quoted as saying that the rate in fall in population growth is irreversible, and that it would have an impact on China’s status as the second largest economy in the world.

It is being inferred that there would be reduction in the workforce and reduction in domestic consumption, and this in combinations would affect the economic growth. The Western experts are also predicting that because of the decline in population growth, American businesses would move out of China and look for alternatives. The bias in the negative interpretation of China’s population trend is obvious.  Chinese experts in 2023 argued based on the figures of 2022 that the decline in population growth was a natural phenomenon which is common in all developed economies. The population stabilises and records a decline as countries become prosperous. The trend can be seen in Europe, in the United States, Japan and South Korea. The Chinese experts are of the view that the decline in population is gradual and not precipitous and that this would not greatly alter the economic strengths of China.

The moot question is whether the decline in China’s population would push China turn into a poor economy that it was before the economic reforms introduced in 1978. It is a fact that the cheap workforce in large numbers was a factor. But that was not the only reason. China had also developed its technological strength and its investments in research and development in science and technology had grown tremendously.

Western countries, especially the United States, want to keep ahead of China through the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the semi-conductor industry. The Americans are putting obstacles in the way of China developing its semi-conductor industry. This may prove to be a short-term tactic, and it would be futile to argue that the Chinese will forever remain dependent on borrowed technology from the West.

One of the main reasons that the West keeps a close watch on developments in China is the ideological one. China remains a communist state, and the Chinese leaders are not willing to loosen the grip of the communist party over the state.

It is the belief of China’s Communist leaders that the control of the Communist party is the only way to keep China together, and protect its people from social disorder and poverty. This would indeed be a debatable issue. But the Chinese have been following their chosen path, and they have made tremendous progress in a system which is described as socialism with Chinese characteristics. In reality, China has been functioning like a market economy for the last 45 years. The Chinese leadership is reasserting the control of the Communist party.