West Africa’s ECOWAS suffers loss of credibility

A decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to quit West Africa’s economic and political bloc reverses decades of regional integration, leaving millions of people in limbo, and is likely to deepen the three junta-led countries’ ties with Russia.

The move to withdraw from the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) could yet take time to implement, opening a door for negotiations.

But, if carried through, it is set to disrupt the region’s trade and services flows, worth nearly $150 billion a year. It also raises questions over millions of nationals from the three poor and landlocked nations who settled in neighbouring states as the bloc allows visa-free travel and right to work.

Ivory Coast alone is home to more than 5 million people from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Niger shares 1,500 km of border with Nigeria and 80% of its trade is done with its richer neighbour, said Seidik Abba, president of the Paris-based CIRES think tank.

Ghana, Togo and Benin also have a big diaspora from Niger.

More than a dozen analysts and Africa diplomats consulted by Reuters agreed the trio’s stance on ECOWAS underscored tumult across a region where armies have struggled to contain militants since seizing power in several countries. Meanwhile, Russia has been extending its influence at the expense of former colonial power France, regional heavyweight Nigeria and the United States, according to Reuters.

Earlier this month, Russia and Niger, ruled by a junta since a coup last year, agreed to develop military ties. Russian military personnel flew into Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou last week to ensure the safety of the country’s military leader. Russia’s Wagner mercenary group also has 1,000 fighters in Mali.

The three military-ruled countries jointly announced their departure on Sunday, accusing ECOWAS of abandoning its founding ideals and falling under the influence of foreign powers.

They said the bloc had offered little support against insurgencies that have killed thousands and displaced over 2 million.

ECOWAS has responded to a wave of coups in the region since 2020 with sanctions that the juntas have called “illegal and inhumane.” The bloc also threatened to use force to restore constitutional rule in Niger, but did not follow through. On Monday, ECOWAS chair Nigeria said the “unelected” military authorities of the three countries were letting their people down, but added it remained willing to engage with them. Established in 1975, ECOWAS has sought to promote economic and political cooperation within the fragmented region, home to a mix of former French and British colonies.

Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said he now expects increased tariffs and new restrictions on the movement of people, goods and money.

The move by the trio is likely the “silliest own goal since the United Kingdom voted for Brexit,” said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at London-based investment management company FIM Partners, referring to Britain’s departure from the European Union.

Gilles Yabi, founder of West African think tank WATHI, said the trio had stopped short of announcing their withdrawal from the regional monetary and economic union that uses the CFA franc, something that would have an even bigger impact. Some analysts said ECOWAS had been too swift to punish the juntas, having previously failed to call out civilian leaders, in Ivory Coast and Guinea among others, who extended their rule through problematic elections or referendums.

Threatening military intervention against the juntas but failing to act also reduced the bloc’s credibility, they said.

For years, security experts have said countries in the region must work closer – sharing more intelligence – to tackle the spreading insurgencies that are feeding off poverty, neglect and abuse as much as ideology.

Instead, the latest crisis at ECOWAS highlights the growing rift between the Western-allied elected governments and military-run countries increasingly relying on Russia and China.