The issues at stake in UK local voting

Millions of voters in England and Wales cast ballots on Thursday in an array of local elections amounting to the last big test before a UK general election that all indicators suggest will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hope he can point to successes, notably in a couple of key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change leader again before the United Kingdom’s main election, which could take place as soon as next month.

On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer hopes Thursday’s local elections confirm what opinion polls have shown for two years - that Labour is on course for power for the first time since 2010, according to the Associated Press.

“The national context going into these local elections is very good for Labour and very bad for the Conservatives,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

As is often the case in British local elections, the run-up is about expectation management, so any outperformance can be painted as a success.

That’s certainly the case with the Conservatives, who are widely predicted to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting. They have pointed out, for example, that the equivalent elections were held in 2021 when the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high following the rollout of the coronavirus vaccines.

Thursday’s elections are important in themselves – voters decide who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as garbage collection, the state of the roads and local crime prevention measures in the coming years.

But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism, the AP report adds.

There was also a special parliamentary election in Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat that went Conservative in the last election in 2019, when Johnson won a big victory. The results will be announced in the coming days. London’s mayoral result isn’t due until Saturday.

No elections took place in Scotland or Northern Ireland, the other parts of the UK.

Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.

Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss’ plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he’s not improved the Conservatives’ ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals.

With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there’s mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday’s election results are really bad.

Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble.

In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb, if it’s going to form the next government.

It’s performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the centre of UK politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn.

Starmer’s cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it’s fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair before the 1997 general election. Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.