Modest John Swinney succeeds Humza Yousaf

It is an interesting succession of First Minister in Scotland. Humza Yousaf, 39, took over from Nicola Sturgeon, 53, and he is now succeeded by John Swinney, 60, who had been deputy first minister to both Sturgeon and Yousaf.

Swinney is seen as an uncharismatic leader compared to Sturgeon’s predecessor Alexander Salmond and even to Sturgeon. He had been leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) from 2000 to 2003, when he had unsuccessfully led the party in the 2003 election. With the quick succession of Sturgeon followed by Yousaf in a matter of two months it seems to be natural that Holyrood, the Scottish Parliament, chose the steady politician, Swinney.

Yousaf had precipitated the crisis by cutting off the partnership with the Scottish Green Party, which his predecessor, Sturgeon, had forced. Both the SNP and the Scottish people in general seem to be quite satisfied with the new leader. It looks like that when the going is tough, people trust an experienced hand.

Swinney true to his modest bearing remarked after his election, “When I stood down as deputy first minister in March last year, I believed that would be last senior office I would hold in politics. Having served then as a senior minister for 16 years I felt I had – to coin a phrase – done my bit.”

Swinney looked after finance in his earlier stint. And he said that he would focus on child poverty. It is said that he has two responsibilities; first, taking care of his wife suffering from multiple sclerosis; second, to handle the crisis in Scotland.

James Kelly of the pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog said, “The problem is that he hasn’t changed much in 20 years. His communication skills are still workmanlike and aren’t in the same league as Salmond and Sturgeon…not all popular leaders are conventionally charismatic…The fact that he’s older and the public have seen his competence in government over many years will make him more popular the second time around.”

The SNP’s goal is the independence of Scotland. The last referendum held on the issue in Scotland did not get the required approval from the people, and the attempt by Sturgeon to go for a second independent referendum was shot down by the United Kingdom’s Supreme Court. The court said that the referendum cannot be held without the approval of Westminster, the British Parliament.

There is the general confidence that if Swinney holds fort then things would turn out well for Scotland. Says Angela Curley, a university lecturer, “I think the debate is still there. Polls suggest that the independence debate has not lost momentum, which could indicate it is now above politics or manifesto mantra. I think Swinney simply needs to be the constant gardener, ensuring the right people are in the right posts to maintain public confidence.”

The next Scottish Parliament elections are due in 2026. The political challenge to SNP is from the Scottish Labour Party which has been out of power in Edinburgh for more than a decade. In the British Parliament elections in 2025, the Labour is expected to come back to power with a big majority after 15 years of Conservative rule. Labour’s victory in Britain could brighten the chances of the party in Scotland, which has been a traditional stronghold of the party.

It is in this context that Swinney faces a tough challenge. He has to run a minority government for the next two years, and at the end of it he has to win a national election. It might be said that Swinney has too much on his hands, and all that could be expected of him is to keep the SNP in office for the remaining part of the term.