Close calls

The outcome of Donald Trump’s hush money criminal trial is unlikely to harm his bid for a second presidential term. Polls show he is running neck-and-neck against incumbent Joe Biden and is ahead in five of the six swing states which normally determine the outcome in the Electoral College. Trump’s base is loyal and cares nothing about his legal woes.

Biden’s attachment to Israel in the widely unpopular Gaza war could cost him the support of Arab, Muslim, Black and young voters. Although they may be “never Trumpers” they may either cast ballots for one of the no-hope candidates or boycott the election. This would not only deprive Biden of votes but also cost legislators from his party and turn the 2024 contest into a rout of the Democrats.

Trump was on trial in a Manhattan court on 34 allegations that he falsified business records to conceal a $130,000 payment before the 2016 election to silence adult film actress Stormy Daniels. She said she had an affair with him a decade earlier and was prepared to tell her story to the media for a fee. The hush money was paid to Daniels by Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen who was then reimbursed by Trump’s firm in instalments labelled legal fees. During the protracted trial, which Trump was obliged to attend, the prosecution had to prove that he had ordered Cohen to falsify business records, thereby violating state and federal laws compelling Triump to declare the $130,000 to be campaign funds.

Trump is also facing criminal felony cases elsewhere: 40 charges in Florida for allegedly stealing classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to retrieve them, four cases in Washington related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and 13 cases in the state of Georgia over his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election result there.

And, he has appealed punishing verdicts in civil cases in New York state over manipulation of company records and defaming journalist E. Jean Carroll who won a multi-million-dollar settlement from him in a case over physical abuse.

As conviction of low-level felonies does not disqualify Trump from running for the presidency or assuming office, Trump attended court sessions in the morning and campaigned evenings and weekends when the court did not sit.

The New York Times reported that Trump’s slender lead in polls over the past eight months may not be “quite as stable as it looks.” His lead, the author the of article Nate Cohn. argued this advantage “is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.” He said these “disengaged voters” have not only skewed polls but also contributed to Trumps gains at the ballot box.

The most significant discovery made by Cohn is that “disengaged low-turnout voters” are often from predominantly Democratic constituencies. Many continue to identify as Democratic leaning and still back Democratic candidates for US Senate, but they are...backing away from Mr. Biden in startling numbers” according to polls conducted by The New York Times.

Other polls show that Biden’s 36 per cent approval rating is the lowest since mid-2022. Writing in Britain’s conservative Telegraph daily, Washington Post commentator Henry Olsen observed that “no American president since at least Harry Truman in 1948 has won re-election with such dire polls.” In Olsen’s view, this has driven Biden to challenge Trump to a debate in June before either presumptive candidate is formally nominated by party conventions. Biden seeks to boost “momentum” and enter the August Democratic convention “on an upswing,” Olsen holds. Trump, he said, inspires “fear and loathing” among Democrats, who fear Trump dictatorship, and see Biden’s re-election as the means to prevent “rebellion by leading Democrats” who would prefer another candidate.

Biden, 81, could achieve “momentum” only if he can demonstrate he is more energetic and focused than domineering, flighty Trump, 77. This will be difficult because Biden is visibly “elderly,” his speech is often slurred or mushy, he has always been prone to gaffs, and he refuses to budge on unpopular policies.

The issues most concerning voters are the economy, political extremism, and migration. Biden has been un-convincing when dealing with inflation, curbing extremism and reducing the flow of immigrants across the US border with Mexico.

Commentators also insist that Biden’s unconditional support for Israel in the Gaza war is a key factor dividing Democrats. Many are increasingly concerned over his stubborn refusal to use Washington’s considerable leverage to rein in Israel. His attitude is rooted in his 1970s admiration for Israel. Biden’s devotion has not changed over half a century although popular perceptions of Israel have eroded due to its enduring, punitive occupation of East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza and the refusal of Israel’s increasingly right-wing leaders to cede 22 per cent of Palestinian land to a Palestinian state in exchange for Arab-Israeli peace.

To make matters worse for Biden, his stance has been seriously undermined by last week’s announcement by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court that he would seek arrest warrants for alleged war crimes for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and the demand by the International Court of Justice for an end to Israel’s offensive in Gaza’s Rafah province.

By contrast, Trump, another strong supporter of Israel, has hedged his bets to a certain extent. He has warned Israel it is “losing the PR [public relations] war” in Gaza because of horrendous media images of the destruction of buildings being bombed in Gaza. He told Israel to finish the war “fast.” In an interview, he refused to say he was 100 per cent behind Israel. Having insisted he won the 2022 election, Trump has criticised Netanyahu who said Biden was legally elected at that time.

Trump is determined never to be a “loser.” He may have a good second chance not to be a “loser” again in November’s presidential election. It is Trump’s to win, Biden’s to lose.

Photo: TNS