Zelensky seeks Asian support for Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unscheduled appearance at the Shangri-La security forum which is held annually at Singapore, and the participating countries are from the Asia-Pacific region. Zelensky pleaded with the Asian leaders that they should participate in the summit to be held in Switzerland on June 15-16 to work out a peace formula for the war in Ukraine.

Russia was not invited. Russia said that there can be no peace talks if it is not present. China has said that it would not attend. Zelensky was pleading that China should attend and he regretted the fact that China has been asking other countries not to attend the summit as well. Zelensky said that 106 countries will send representatives to the summit in Switzerland and 75 heads of state will attend as well. Zelensky says that Russia should be isolated diplomatically. The Ukrainian president’s strategy is understandable. The war has now been on for nearly two-and-a-half years, and Ukraine has not been able to push back Russia. Russia too has failed to achieve its goal of toppling the Zelensky government.

It is interesting that Zelensky is turning to Asia for support despite the full backing he has from NATO members, including the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. And there is also the support from the European Union (EU) countries, despite reservations about the support for Ukraine from EU members like Hungary. Zelensky wants to build a wider support base for Ukraine, which goes beyond Europe because NATO and EU support does not seem to have much impact on Russia.

The Ukrainian president is also aware of the fact that China is close to Russia and the two are alliance partners; the United States is pitted against the two.  Zelensky wants to wean away China from Russia to the maximum extent possible. China has made it clear that it would want a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Ukrainian leader might find it difficult to convince China to move away from Russia, but he is keen that other Asian countries should not be influenced by the Chinese position.

Zelensky should not have worried because the power tussle between the United States and China has divided much of south-east and far-east Asia between the Chinese and American spheres of influence. The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in the American sphere of influence though ASEAN members like Singapore, Cambodia and Myanmar would want to be neutral because of the geo-economic compulsions of the region. South Korea, Japan, Australia are already supporting Ukraine in the war effort because these countries are part of the American alliance in the Asia-Pacific.

But it is a good diplomatic move on the part of Zelensky that he should seek support for Ukraine among the Asian countries. The general perception has been that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is a European problem, and it does not concern countries of Asia, especially in the east. Some of the West Asian and African countries have been affected by the Ukraine-Russia war because of the export of wheat from Ukraine and Russia, and they are also the largest exporters of wheat. This has created shortages in Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon and other countries, and the prices of wheat in these places have shot up.

The impact on east Asia of the war in Ukraine has not been much. In some ways, both China and India benefited from the Russian oil imports at cheap prices because of the Western sanctions. Zelensky seems to be convinced that to isolate Russia diplomatically he needs the support of majority of Asian countries. It is also a good diplomatic move. The question is how far can this help in ending the war in Ukraine.