Will Hunter’s conviction affect Biden’s fortunes?

American President Joe Biden’s second son, Hunter Biden, was convicted by a Delaware jury on three counts of felony for filling the form when buying a revolver in 2018 that he was not a drug addict when evidence dredged up by Justice Department showed that he had a history of drug addiction. The sentencing is to be done sometime later.

The maximum punishment for making a false statement would be 25 years in prison. It is being said that since he was a first-time offender he may not attract the maximum sentence. Defence lawyers for Hunter Biden had argued that there was political motivation in pursuing the case, blaming pressure from Republican lawmakers. But President Biden had maintained scrupulous silence on the issue, but he said that he and the family stood by Hunter as family. As a matter of fact, First Lady Jill Biden was at the Delaware courthouse when the conviction was pronounced, and she accompanied the stepson to home, refusing to make any statement to the waiting media.

The general question being raised is whether Hunter’s conviction by the jury would impact the presidential prospects of Biden in the November election, as the same question is being asked about Trump when a New York jury had convicted him felony recently. Trump and his supporters have been loud in declaring that the conviction in what has come to be known as the “hush money” case, that it was political vendetta on the part of Democrats. The Manhattan attorney Alvin Bragg who brought the case against Trump is a Democrat.  It is a coincidence that Delaware judge Maryellen Norieka who presided over the case against Hunter Biden is a Trump-appointed one. The politicisation of the two cases seems inevitable because the Republicans are convinced that the conviction of Trump, the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican party, was a Democrat conspiracy.

It is a matter of speculation whether Hunter Biden’s conviction would in any way affect his father’s presidential re-run later this year. There is no charge against President Biden that he was in any way involved in Hunter’s misdemeanour. In the case of Trump, who is a presidential contender, he has been found to be directly involved in an act of felony. The two cases then stand qualitatively on different grounds.

There is also doubt whether Trump’s political fortune has in any way been affected by the New York jury’s guilty verdict. It seems to have strengthened Trump’s support base, who believe that the verdict is politically motivated. It is possible that what will decide Trump’s presidential bid is not so much the felony charges but whether Americans in general are convinced that he can tackle America’s economic woes. Trump’s supporters are convinced that Trump is indeed the man of the hour.

The presidential contest has been less about the issues facing America and more about Trump’s exaggerated claims. Biden has been saying that if Trump were elected, it would be the end of democracy in America, which is an exaggerated statement in its own way.

But the presidential election has been polarised and personalised beyond the norm, and the personal barbs of the two candidates against each other will be crowding the newspaper and television news headlines in the run-up to the election. By November, the focus would have moved away from the convictions of Trump and Hunter Biden, and will revolve around the issue of illegal immigrants from Mexico, the fluctuating fortunes of the domestic economy. Biden has been strongly advocating support for Ukraine against Russia, something that Trump disagrees vehemently. Similarly, Biden’s stance on the ceasefire in Gaza does not have Trump’s endorsement.