Guarded optimism in Iran over Pezeshkian’s victory

The victory of Masoud Pezeshkian in the presidential run-off on Friday reflects the popular desire of the voters for a more pragmatic politics in the country. But it is not exactly the triumph of liberals, moderates, and reformers in the Iranian society. The complex constitutional structure which provides for popular election is limited to the non-elective Guardian Council and the office of the Supreme Leader. It was the Guardian Council of Shia clerics who approved the list of presidential candidates.

It is interesting that the two who survived the first round and remained in the fray for the final round were non-clerics. Pezeshkian is a qualified heart surgeon and headed the Tabriz Medical University before he was brought to Tehran to be the minister for health by 1990s reformist president Mohammad Khatami. That marked the entry of Pezeshkian into politics. Similarly, Saeed Jalili has been a nuclear negotiator without any theological background. This cannot however be taken to mean that this marks the end of the clerical phase in Iranian democracy.

Pezeshkian was also careful not to flaunt his reformist credentials though he expressed his views clearly that Iran should end its isolation which is a result of Western economic sanctions over the nuclear issue. He is also of the view that the market should be the decisive force in the domestic economy, including the prized oil sector.

Jalili was in favour of greater state supervision of the economy. There is no doubt that 16.4 million of the electorate voted for Pezeshkian, and 13.5 million for Jalili. In electoral terms, a margin of 3 million of votes is quite significant. But it has to be remembered that only 50 per cent of the eligible voters had cast their ballots. The other 50 per cent kept away because they felt that their vote would not make much difference, and that the system, though a majority are not happy with it, cannot be changed.

The voting percentage in a way reflects the pessimism of the people. It can be argued that this democratic despair is not confined to cleric-dominated Iran, and that this is a general trend of electoral politics in democracies all over the world. Pezeshkian also acknowledged the role played by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the peaceful election, and in enabling him to be part of the contest. In his post-victory speech, Pezeshkian acknowledged: “During this peaceful election process, with votes accurately counted, I must thank the leader of Islamic Revolution. Without his guidance, I do not believe my name would have merged from these ballots. It was through his leadership, that we were able to reach this point.”

There are many in Iran who believe that Pezeshkian may not be able to achieve much on the foreign policy front if Donald Trump were to win the American presidential election in November. It was Trump who had pulled out of the nuclear deal that his predecessor Barack Obama had worked out. Academic Mostafa Khoshcheshm pointed out that foreign policy is decided at the Supreme National Security Council, which has representatives from the government, the armed forces, the Supreme Leader and the Parliament. The Majlis, the parliament, is dominated by the conservatives.

Despite the structural complexity of the Iranian governing system, it is clear that the Iranian economy is facing a crisis. Pezeshkian’s immediate challenge would to address the economic challenge. The other major issue is whether the social restrictions, especially on women’s dress code, would ease up with the election of Pezeshkian. The nationwide protests that marked the death of the Kurdish girl, Mahsa Amini, in the custody of the moral police in 2022 reflected the widespread discontent among the people. This issue could be more difficult for Pezeshkian than even the economy to handle.