Mounting pressure

Pressure is increasing on US President Joe Biden to end his bid for a second term due to the mental confusion and physical fragility he exhibited during the first presidential debate on June 27.

Following the debate 74 per cent of US poll respondents considered Biden, 81, too old to return to the White House while only 42 per cent took the same view of rival Donald Trump, who is 78. Biden’s most aggressive and vocal advocate is Jill Biden, his wife of 47 years, who argues that her husband has overcome many reverses in his life and can succeed once again. Her support has made a stubborn Biden even more stubborn in his refusal to retire. 

Nevertheless, fellow Democrats are calling for Biden to step down and enable the party to choose a new candidate to stand against Republican Trump. If Biden carries on, he could doom the US and the world to another four years of the disastrous and dangerous Trump.

Democrat party strategist David Axelrod told CNN on Sunday that Biden is in denial. He refuses to believe time is a factor, that he still has the ability to function both as credible candidate and president. His poll numbers are low. Nevertheless, he thinks he could win the election by a “narrow margin” while, Axelrod said, he could lose by a “landslide.” 

This is because in the US system Trump has momentum in swing, or battleground, states which decide the outcome in the Electoral College. Axelrod pointed out that Biden has a fine legacy as vice president during the Obama Administration and president but this would be jeopardised if he should lose this election to Trump. Biden’s attitude is that if he gives the campaign his “all” and does “as good a job as [he knows he] can do, that’s what this is about.”

No, the contest is about stopping Trump which the aging Biden cannot be trusted to do. Furthermore, if Bide continues his bid, he could take down fellow Democrat party senators and members of the House of Representatives. This could give Trump sweeping victories in the presidency and the legislature and enable him to carry out his regressive and repressive policies.  While he was in office the first time (2017-21), Trump added three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, making the line up six conservatives to three liberals. This enabled him to engineer the adoption of his agenda on abortion, guns, and immunity from prosecution for sitting presidents.

Trump seeks to expand the powers of the presidency at the expense of Congress and the judiciary which are meant to check an overreaching executive. He has adopted an anti-immigrant policy and plans to deport hundreds of thousands. He is determined to repeal the Affordable Care Act which provides health care to the elderly and poor, abolish the Department of Education, raise tariffs, pursue an “America First” foreign policy, and cancel regulations cutting down greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming.  In this region, he would resume the “Israel First” policy which he championed during his first term in office (2017-21).

Trump relishes the chaos in the Democrat party caused by Biden’s refusal to even consider stepping aside. Trump takes the view that he can defeat Biden but might not win if the Democrats adopt a new candidate to top their ticket.

Who could replace Biden? Vice-President Kamala Harris is the most obvious choice. As a member of the Biden administration, she is well versed in its policies. She would also inherit millions of dollars in campaign funds donated for Biden. However, it is not clear that US voters are mature enough to elect a woman to the presidency, even a woman as high profile as Harris.

Michigan’s two-term progressive governor Gretchen Whitmer could be another possibility. She has already indicated she could run for president in 2028. Michigan is a key swing state which she would be expected to win. But being a woman is a drawback in the politically backward, male dominated US.

California governor Gavin Newsom is also said to be eager to stand for the presidency in 2028, but could be drafted to take over from Biden.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ran for president in 2020 and could be a potential replacement for Biden. Highly regarded Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro could be another.

Whatever happens, Biden will not be missed in this part of the world and Trump will not be welcome. Since taking office in January 2021, Biden has generally followed Trump’s negative policies. During his presidential campaign, Biden promised to return the US to the 2015 agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Although he was vice-president to Barack Obama when the deal was signed, Biden did not revive the deal which Trump abandoned in 2018.

This has had negative consequences for the region. Iran abided by the deal for a year before breaching its limits by enriching uranium to 20 and then 60 per cent purity and amassing a large stockpile of enriched uranium nearing 90 per cent needed for bombs. Instead of choosing a reformist president to succeed moderate Hassan Rouhani in 2021, the Iranian clerics engineered the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi who was killed in May this year in a helicopter crash. While he was in office, Tehran strengthened ties with the UAE and reconciled with Saudi Arabia but remained hostile towards the US and the West. Sanctions which have crippled Iran’s economy have multiplied.

Biden largely followed Trump’s example when dealing with the Palestinians. Biden resumed funding UNRWA, the agency caring for Palestinian refugees which Trump cancelled but Biden did not reopen the Trump-closed US consulate in occupied East Jerusalem or the Palestinian mission in Washington. Biden did nothing to press for negotiations on the two-state solution for the emergence of a Palestinian state which is opposed by Trump.

Since Oct.7 last year, Biden has armed and funded Israel in its deadly and devastating war on Gaza which has killed more than 38,000 Palestinians, wounded 87,000, buried 8,000 beneath the rubble of their homes, and turned Gaza into a wasteland. His support for Israel’s war on Gaza has transformed Arab relations with the US and encouraged Arab leaders to turn to Russia, China, and the Global South for political support and trade. The re-election of either Biden or Trump can only accelerate this pivot away from the US. If Biden is replaced, there is a slim chance he or she could adopt respectable regional policies.

Photo: AFP